Table 4:
Shift-Share IV Estimates of the Effect of Chinese Imports on Manufacturing Employment
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||||||
| Coefficient | −0.596 (0.114) | −0.489 (0.100) | −0.267 (0.099) | −0.314 (0.107) | −0.310 (0.134) | −0.290 (0.129) | −0.432 (0.205) |
| Regional controls | |||||||
| Autor et al. (2013) controls | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | |
| Start-of-period mfg. share | ✓ | ||||||
| Lagged mfg. share | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | |
| Period-specific lagged mfg. share | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ||
| Lagged 10-sector shares | ✓ | ✓ | |||||
| Local Acemoglu et al. (2016) controls | ✓ | ||||||
| Lagged industry shares | ✓ | ||||||
| SSIV first stage F-stat. | 185.6 | 166.7 | 123.6 | 272.4 | 64.6 | 63.3 | 27.6 |
| # of region-periods | 1,444 | 1,444 | 1,444 | 1,444 | 1,444 | 1,444 | 1,444 |
| # of industry-periods | 796 | 794 | 794 | 794 | 794 | 794 | 794 |
Notes: This table reports shift-share IV coefficients from regressions of regional manufacturing employment growth in the U.S. on the growth of import competition from China, instrumented with predicted China import growth as described in Section 6.2.1. Column 1 replicates column 6 of Table 3 in Autor et al. (2013) by controlling for period fixed effects, Census division fixed effects, start-of-period conditions (% college educated, % foreign-born, % employment among women, % employment in routine occupations, and the average offshorability index), and the start-of-period manufacturing share. Column 2 replaces the start-of-period manufacturing shares control with the lagged manufacturing shares underlying the instrument, while column 3 interacts this control with period indicators. Column 4 removes the Census division fixed effects and start-of-period covariates. Columns 5—7 instead add exposure-weighted sums of industry controls from Acemoglu et al. (2016): indicators of 10 industry sectors (column 5), production controls (column 6), and indicators of 397 industries (column 7). Production controls are: employment share of production workers, ratio of capital to value-added, log real wage (all measured in 1991); and computer investment as share of total and high-tech equipment as share of total employment (both measured in 1990). Exposure-robust standard errors (reported in parentheses) and first-stage F-statistics are obtained from equivalent industry-level IV regressions, as described in the text, allowing for clustering of shocks at the level of three-digit SIC codes. For commuting zone controls which have a shift-share structure (all controls starting with the lagged manufacturing share), we include the corresponding qnt controls in the industry-level IV regression. The sample in columns 2—7 includes 722 locations (commuting zones) and 397 industries, each observed in two periods; the estimate in column 1 implicitly includes an additional two observations for the non-manufacturing industry with a shock of zero in each period.