Table 7.
Average values of the SST and climate indices for the different malaria epidemic index categories (0–1–2) for Amhara and the associated Gerrity Skill Score
| Climate indices | No epidemic (0) | Localized epidemic (1) | Widespread epidemic (2) | Gerrity skill Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature variables (oC) | ||||
| JAS NINO 3.4 | 0.094 | − 0.159 | 0.085 | 0.079 |
| MAM NINO 3.4 | 0.041 | − 0.231 | 0.156 | 0.041 |
| JAS IOD | − 0.165 | 0.025 | 0.031 | − 0.012 |
| JAS Trop Atlantic | − 0.111 | 0.231 | 0.160 | 0.187 |
| JAS Amhara Tmax | 24.6 | 24.5 | 24.2 | 0.287a |
| JAS Amhara Tmin | 13 | 13.1 | 13.2 | 0.272 |
| Rainfall variable (mm) | ||||
| JAS Amhara rainfall | 689 | 767 | 724 | 0.249 |
aNote that the Gerrity Skill score for JAS Amhara Tmax is based on a negative correlation (i.e., cooler Tmax tend to be correlated with more widespread malaria epidemics). All other Gerrity scores shown are based on a positive correlation framework