Table 2.
OLS estimatation: protest turnout & post-protest case growth.
| Case Growtht = 1 + Case Growtht = 2 (per 00,000′) (6/16–7/27, 2020) |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| log(Protest Turnout per 00,000′) | 29.95*** | 18.50*** | ||||
| (5.02) | (5.68) | |||||
| log(Protest Turnout) | 28.98*** | 22.46*** | ||||
| (8.17) | (6.90) | |||||
| BLM Protest | 3.59*** | 2.27*** | ||||
| (4.77) | (3.81) | |||||
| Case per 00,000’ @5/25 | −0.07* | −0.06 | −0.05 | |||
| (-1.69) | (-1.49) | (-1.25) | ||||
| Case Growtht = -1 | 0.33** | 0.32** | 0.31** | |||
| (2.60) | (2.65) | (2.53) | ||||
| Case Growtht = -2 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.16 | |||
| (-0.62) | (-1.02) | (-1.39) | ||||
| Days since 1st Case | 110.18*** | 87.77*** | 88.53*** | |||
| (4.27) | (3.35) | (3.58) | ||||
| Black | −0.04 | −0.33 | 0.25 | |||
| (-0.03) | (-0.23) | (0.17) | ||||
| Non-white Hispanic | −2.44 | 0.14 | 2.27 | |||
| (-0.12) | (0.01) | (0.13) | ||||
| Asian | −10.49*** | −10.32*** | −10.43*** | |||
| (-3.30) | (-3.32) | (-3.21) | ||||
| Native American | −1.60 | −0.77 | −0.76 | |||
| (-0.63) | (-0.34) | (-0.30) | ||||
| Other non-white ethnicity | 15.98 | 12.72 | 7.80 | |||
| (0.85) | (0.67) | (0.45) | ||||
| Median outdoor minutes | −0.94 | −0.45 | −0.97 | |||
| (-1.49) | (-0.73) | (-1.50) | ||||
| Reopening Phase (standard) | −6.11 | −5.07 | 3.71 | |||
| (-0.22) | (-0.19) | (0.12) | ||||
| Population density | −12.21* | −12.75** | −11.08* | |||
| (-1.91) | (-2.12) | (-1.70) | ||||
| Housing density | 16.88 | 17.24 | 13.25 | |||
| (1.26) | (1.35) | (1.01) | ||||
| Age 65+ | −20.44*** | −18.84*** | −20.86*** | |||
| (-6.81) | (-6.89) | (-6.49) | ||||
| Democrat voting | 20.67 | 8.51 | 24.78 | |||
| (0.74) | (0.31) | (0.83) | ||||
| Per capita income | 2.40 | 2.21 | 2.46 | |||
| (1.25) | (1.19) | (1.33) | ||||
| Internet coverage | −8.50*** | −9.40*** | −7.26*** | |||
| (-3.61) | (-3.79) | (-2.84) | ||||
| Ave temperature | 16.55*** | 16.39*** | 16.21*** | |||
| (4.95) | (4.92) | (4.41) | ||||
| HotHumid weekday | −1.37 | −1.75 | −1.62 | |||
| (-0.45) | (-0.60) | (-0.58) | ||||
| HotHumid weekend | −0.60 | −0.17 | 0.39 | |||
| (-0.22) | (-0.06) | (0.15) | ||||
| Cold weekday | 2.14 | 2.12 | 3.19 | |||
| (0.46) | (0.44) | (0.65) | ||||
| Cold weekend |
9.73*** | 9.77*** | 9.45*** | |||
| (3.33) |
(3.22) |
(3.09) |
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| State FE | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| R2 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| Obs. | 3101 | 3101 | 3101 | 3101 | 3101 | 3101 |
Note: This table shows the regressions in which we regress case growth per 100,000 population in the six-week window post BLM protests (6/16–7/27, 2020) on the three measures of BLM protest intensity: i) the log of protest turnout per 100,000 population (columns (1) and (2)), ii) the log of protest turnout (columns (3) and (4)), and iii) the number of the BLM protests (columns (5) and (6)). We winsorize both case growth per 100,000 population and BLM protest measures at the 5% level to limit the influence from extreme values. Each observation is a county. All regressions are weighted by county population, and control for state fixed effects. The standard errors are clustered at the state level. t-stats are shown in parentheses. ∗, ∗∗, ∗∗∗ indicates the observed coefficient is statistically significant at the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, respectively.