Table 4.
First stage regression: rainfall effect on BLM protest turnout.
| log(Protest Turnout per 00,000′) |
log(Protest Turnout) |
Number of BLM Protests |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| log(RainfallBLM) | −0.10*** | −0.12*** | −0.22*** | −0.23*** | −5.01*** | −5.47*** |
| (-3.27) | (-3.87) | (-4.26) | (-5.84) | (-3.35) | (-3.55) | |
| Case per 00,000’ @5/25 | −0.00 | −0.00** | −0.01** | |||
| (-0.08) | (-2.38) | (-2.21) | ||||
| Case Growtht = -1 | −0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | |||
| (-0.49) | (0.17) | (0.88) | ||||
| Case Growtht = -2 | 0.00 | 0.00*** | 0.04** | |||
| (1.01) | (3.79) | (2.68) | ||||
| Days since 1st Case | 0.37*** | 1.27*** | 11.51* | |||
| (3.14) | (3.16) | (1.68) | ||||
| Black | 0.03*** | 0.02*** | 0.06*** | 0.03*** | 0.20** | 0.02 |
| (4.07) | (3.22) | (4.16) | (2.90) | (2.38) | (0.24) | |
| Non-white Hispanic | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.15* | −0.18*** | −2.42*** | −2.61*** |
| (-1.10) | (-1.47) | (-1.96) | (-2.81) | (-3.03) | (-3.25) | |
| Asian | −0.00 | −0.02** | 0.01 | −0.03* | 0.15 | −0.32 |
| (-0.46) | (-2.55) | (0.64) | (-1.97) | (1.35) | (-1.44) | |
| Native American | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.04** | −0.10 | −0.35*** |
| (-0.29) | (-1.31) | (-0.91) | (-2.47) | (-1.21) | (-3.23) | |
| Other non-white ethnicity | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.18** | 0.16** | 3.39*** | 3.34*** |
| (0.62) | (0.68) | (2.16) | (2.09) | (4.09) | (4.18) | |
| Median outdoor minutes | −0.01*** | −0.03*** | −0.12*** | |||
| (-5.23) | (-9.80) | (-3.94) | ||||
| Reopening Phase (standard) | −0.02 | −0.02 | −3.15* | |||
| (-0.21) | (-0.14) | (-1.94) | ||||
| Population density | −0.00 | −0.01 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.50 | −0.34 |
| (-0.02) | (-0.49) | (1.10) | (0.48) | (1.30) | (-0.44) | |
| Housing density | 0.03 | 0.07 | −0.06 | 0.03 | −0.15 | 1.90 |
| (0.45) | (1.42) | (-0.73) | (0.38) | (-0.18) | (1.16) | |
| Age 65+ | −0.04** | −0.04** | −0.11*** | −0.11*** | −0.29 | −0.23 |
| (-2.14) | (-2.60) | (-2.74) | (-3.86) | (-1.63) | (-1.41) | |
| Democrat voting | 0.78*** | 0.55*** | 1.59*** | 1.03*** | 5.13*** | 3.94** |
| (4.97) | (3.63) | (5.34) | (4.72) | (3.51) | (2.26) | |
| Per capita income | 0.02** | 0.01 | 0.04*** | 0.01 | 0.37** | 0.00 |
| (2.08) | (0.88) | (2.79) | (0.85) | (2.60) | (0.02) | |
| Internet coverage | 0.05*** | 0.04*** | 0.11*** | 0.07*** | −0.30** | −0.21 |
| (5.39) | (4.70) | (8.27) | (4.63) | (-2.58) | (-1.07) | |
| Ave temperature | −0.06*** | −0.04* | −0.45** | |||
| (-3.76) | (-1.95) | (-2.33) | ||||
| HotHumid weekday | 0.01 | 0.01 | −0.29 | |||
| (0.70) | (0.35) | (-0.49) | ||||
| HotHumid weekend | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.05 | |||
| (-0.31) | (-0.35) | (-0.13) | ||||
| Cold weekday | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | |||
| (0.10) | (0.11) | (-1.02) | ||||
| Cold weekend |
−0.00 | −0.00 | 0.12 | |||
| (-0.03) |
(-0.05) |
(0.35) |
||||
| State FE | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| R2 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.64 | 0.68 | 0.59 | 0.69 |
| Obs. | 3101 | 3101 | 3101 | 3101 | 3101 | 3101 |
Note: This table shows the first stage regression analysis. The dependent variable is i) the log of protest turnout per 100,000 population (columns (1) and (2)), ii) the log of protest turnout (columns (3) and (4)), and iii) the number of the BLM protests (columns (5) and (6)). We winsorize the outcome variables and instrumental variable at the 5% level to limit the influence from extreme values. All regressions are weighted by county population, and control for state fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the state level. t-stats are shown in parentheses. ∗, ∗∗, ∗∗∗ indicates the observed coefficient is statistically significant at the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, respectively.