Table 5.
IV estimate: protest effect on post-protest case growth.
| Case Growtht = 1 + Case Growtht = 2 (per 00,000′) (6/16–7/27, 2020) |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduced Form |
2SLS |
2SLS |
2SLS |
|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | |
| log(Protest Turnout per 00,000′) | 173.19** | |||
| (2.27) | ||||
| log(Protest Turnout) | 87.35** | |||
| (2.64) | ||||
| BLM Protest | 3.72*** | |||
| (3.98) | ||||
| log(RainfallBLM) | −20.36*** | |||
| (-2.78) | ||||
| Control variables: | ||||
| Lagged Case Growth | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Median outdoor minutes | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Reopening Phase (standard) | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Demographics | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Weather Condition | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| State FE | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| First Stage Diagnostics: | ||||
| Cragg-Donald Wald F | 31.85 | 69.88 | 622.39 | |
| Kleibergen-Paap Wald Rk F | 15.01 | 34.08 | 12.64 | |
| R2 | 0.82 | |||
| Obs. | 3101 | 3101 | 3101 | 3101 |
Note: This table shows the main regression results. Column (1) is the reduced form regression, which shows the effect of rainfall on case growth. Columns (2)–(4) report the results of two-stage-least-squares (2SLS) regressions of case growth on the three different BLM protest measures. We winsorize i) case growth per 100,000 population, ii) BLM protest turnout per 100,000 population, and iii) rainfall level at 5% to limit the influence from extreme values. All regressions are weighted by county population, and control for state fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the state level. t-stats are shown in parentheses. ∗, ∗∗, ∗∗∗ indicates the observed coefficient is statistically significant at the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, respectively.