Table 6.
Placebo test results Panel A: Placebo reduced form regression for rainfall effect on case growth (non-protest time windows).
| Case Growth (per 00,000′) (7/16–8/27, 2020) |
Case Growth (per 00,000′) (8/16–9/27, 2020) |
|
|---|---|---|
| Reduced Form |
Reduced Form |
|
| (1) | (2) | |
| log(Rainfall): 6/26–7/15, 2020 | 3.96 | |
| (0.61) | ||
| log(Rainfall): 7/26–8/15, 2020 | 8.38 | |
| (1.31) | ||
| Control variables: | ||
| Lagged Case Growth | ✓ | ✓ |
| Median outdoor minutes | ✓ | ✓ |
| Reopening Phase (standard) | ✓ | ✓ |
| Demographics | ✓ | ✓ |
| Weather Condition | ✓ | ✓ |
| State FE | ✓ | ✓ |
| R2 | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| Obs. | 3101 | 3095 |
| Panel B: Placebo test for the protest correlation with pre-protest case growth | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Case Growth (per 00,000′) |
|||
|
t = -3 (3/24–4/13, 2020) |
t = -2 (4/14–5/4, 2020) |
t = -1 (5/5-5/25, 2020) |
|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | |
| log(Protest Turnout per 00,000′) (5/26–6/15, 2020) | −1.25 | 0.43 | −1.15 |
| (-0.59) | (0.25) | (-0.95) | |
| Control variables: | |||
| Lagged Case Growth | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Median outdoor minutes | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Reopening Phase (standard) | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Demographics | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Weather Condition | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| State FE | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ |
| R2 | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.75 |
| Obs. | 3101 | 3101 | 3101 |
Note: Panel A regresses the subsequent case growth on the log of rainfall in July and August. In column (1), we shift the time window forward by 1 month, and regress the COVID-19 case growth during 7/16–8/27 on the rainfall during 6/26–7/15. In column (2), we shift the time window forward by 2 months, and regress the COVID-19 case growth during 8/16–9/27 on the rainfall during 7/26–8/15. Panel B regresses the case growth in the pre-protest periods on the BLM protest turnouts. Columns (1)–(3) look at the case growth during 3/24–4/13, 4/14–5/4, and 5/5-5/25 respectively. We winsorize i) case growth per 100,000 population, ii) BLM protest turnout per 100,000 population, and iii) rainfall level at 5% to limit the influence from extreme values. All regressions are weighted by county population, and control state fixed effects. Standard errors are clustered at the state level. t-stats are shown in parentheses. ∗, ∗∗, ∗∗∗ indicates the observed coefficient is statistically significant at the 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, respectively.