Table 2.

Simulation Scenario 1: Results related to the predictive distribution of the response variable, under Scenario 1, when the first 4 covariates (representing real and GCM SSTs) are included in the true Poisson regression model. Method 1 retains all covariates; Method 2 discards the covariates with missing values. Results are averaged over 100 simulated data sets.

					Coverage		Size
Method	Cor.Pearson	Cor.Spearman	RMSE	MAE	Equal-tailed	HPD	Equal-tailed	HPD
Hierarchical	0.52	0.49	3.76	2.81	0.95	0.94	17.33	14.64
No missing	0.74	0.70	3.00	2.27	0.93	0.91	10.27	9.65
Method 1	0.69	0.66	3.24	2.44	0.94	0.92	11.18	10.42
Method 2	0.70	0.67	3.18	2.40	0.91	0.90	10.22	9.48