Table A1.

Simulation Scenario 1 Under ${\lambda }_j=100$, ${\lambda }_{jk}=100$, and a Gamma (2, 1/10) prior for ${\psi }_j$: Results related to the predictive distribution of the response variable, under Scenario 1, when the first 4 covariates (representing real and GCM SSTs) are included in the true Poisson regression model. Method 1 retains all covariates; Method 2 discards the covariates with missing values. Results are averaged over 100 simulated data sets.

					Coverage		Size
Method	Cor.Pearson	Cor.Spearman	RMSE	MAE	Equal-tailed	HPD	Equal-tailed	HPD
Hierarchical	0.52	0.49	3.76	2.81	0.95	0.94	17.33	14.63
No missing	0.73	0.69	3.03	2.29	0.93	0.91	10.38	9.78
Method 1	0.69	0.65	3.21	2.40	0.94	0.92	11.36	10.66
Method 2	0.71	0.68	3.11	2.33	0.92	0.91	10.35	9.68