FIGURE 5.

Laboratory work with field derived mosquitoes can be conducted to estimate the effect of multiple environmental variables on mosquito fitness, population dynamics and pathogen transmission. For example, mosquitoes could be housed across a range of constant temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) conditions that are reflective of monthly field conditions. From these experiments, one can estimate the effects of variation in these environmental variables on key larval traits (a: mosquito development rate (MDR) and the probability of egg to adult survival (pEA)), adult traits (b: per capita mortality rate (μ), per capita eggs laid per day (EFD) and per capita daily biting rate (a)) and parasite / pathogen traits (c: vector competence (bc) and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP)). (d) Bayesian hierarchical models can be used to develop T and RH response surfaces for each trait, which can either be incorporated in process-based modelling approaches to infer effects on seasonal and interannual variation in vector-borne pathogen transmission dynamics. (e) Bayesian models can also be used to generate a T and RH dependent, relative R₀ model that can be used to predict environmental suitability for pathogen transmission at various spatial scales. A crucial detail for modelling approaches, based on the evidence presented in Box 2, is that the effects of T and RH will be interactive, not additive. (Inset on temporal dynamics in (D) is from Santos-Vega et al. (2022) Nature Communications; doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-28,145-7. Figure is reproduced under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence).