Table 1.
Excess burial registrations and mortality estimates in Lusaka
| 2020 | 2020–June 2021 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | 95% CrI | Median | 95% CrI | |
| Excess | ||||
| Burial Registrationsa | 1651 | 1209–2078 | 2332 | 1719–2924 |
| Mortalityb: 100% capturec | 2898 | 2031–3953 | 3,977 | 2931–5205 |
| Mortality: 90% capture | 3220 | 2256–4393 | 4419 | 3257–5783 |
| Mortality: 80% capture | 3622 | 2538–4942 | 4971 | 3664–6506 |
| Excess per million | ||||
| Burial Registrations | 644.1 | 471.6–810.7 | 909.7 | 670.6–1140.7 |
| Mortality: 100% capture | 1130.5 | 792.3–1542.1 | 1551.5 | 1143.4–2030.5 |
| Mortality: 90% capture | 1256.2 | 880.1–1713.8 | 1723.9 | 1270.6–2256.0 |
| Mortality: 80% capture | 1413.0 | 990.1–1713.8 | 1939.3 | 1429.4–2538.1 |
| % of increase in registrations/deaths relative to pre-pandemic levels | ||||
| Burial Registrations | 10.5 | 7.7–13.3 | 10.3 | 7.6–12.9 |
| Mortality (irrespective of capture) | 18.5 | 13.0–25.2 | 17.6 | 13.0–23.0 |
| DVWI | ||||
| Burial Registrations | 0.589 | 0.431–0.742 | 0.832 | 0.613–1.043 |
| Mortality: 100% capture | 1.034 | 0.725–1.411 | 1.419 | 1.046–1.857 |
| Mortality: 90% capture | 1.149 | 0.805–1.568 | 1.577 | 1.162–2.064 |
| Mortality: 80% capture | 1.293 | 0.906–1.763 | 1.774 | 1.308–2.322 |
a‘Burial registration’ refers to our estimates of excess registration in older ages (5+ years), calculated relative to expected baseline registrations derived from weekly registration patterns in the <5 years age group, assuming that these baseline estimates reflect underlying non-COVID-19 deaths across all ages. b‘Mortality’ refers to our estimates of excess mortality assuming changes in <5 years mortality are driven by changes in the likelihood that deaths are reported rather than underlying changes in non-COVID-19 deaths. c‘Capture’ refers to the proportion of deaths in Lusaka typically captured within the system prior to the pandemic. *refers to the percentage of all registrations/deaths within a given time-period which were deemed excess. Highlighted in bold and/or italics are results using our default assumptions that 90% of underlying mortality is captured by pre-pandemic burial registration.