Table 1. Final full ecological regression models.

Posterior means and 95% credible intervals (95% CI) of the relative risks (RR) for the covariates (in natural scale) in the disease mapping and final full ecological regression models for the occurrence of scorpion envenomation, municipalities of the state of São Paulo, 2008 to 2021. The cells in bold indicate that the 95% CI do not include the null risk of one.

Intercept/Covariates		RR	95% CI
Disease mapping model + random effects		0.73	0.69–0.76
Full model
Intercept		0.68	0.62–0.75
Seasons	Autumn	1.00	-
	Winter	0.87	0.78–0.97
	Summer	1.23	1.09–1.39
	Spring	1.31	1.16–1.48
ENSO–El Niño Southern Oscillation	Neutral	1.00	-
	El Niño strong	1.06	0.83–1.33
	El Niño moderate	0.89	0.75–1.05
	El Niño weak	0.95	0.85–1.06
	La Niña weak	1.14	0.99–1.30
	La Niña moderate	1.02	0.80–1.28
	La Niña strong	1.14	0.94–1.36
Square root of the natural vegetation		0.96	0.88–1.06
Square root of the rural population		0.98	0.91–1.06
Municipal human development index		0.95	0.87–1.04
Gini index		1.11	1.01–1.23
Percentage of population with water supply		1.03	0.94–1.13
Percentage of population with garbage collection		1.06	0.98–1.14