Table 1.
Trends in migraine incidence rate across Socio-demographic Index quintiles, 1990−2019
| Global (N = 204) | High SDI (N = 41) | High-middle SDI (N = 41) | Middle SDI (N = 40) | Low-middle SDI (N = 41) | Low SDI (N = 41) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 2019 | 1990 | 2019 | 1990 | 2019 | 1990 | 2019 | 1990 | 2019 | 1990 | 2019 | |
| Population | ||||||||||||
| Number, n | 5,349,847,687 (5,238,894,009, 5,459,638,741) | 7,737,464,623 (7,482,639,908, 7,992,501,511) | 8.22E + 08 | 1.01E + 09 | 1.15E + 09 | 1.43E + 09 | 1.72E + 09 | 2.4E + 09 | 1.13E + 09 | 1.76E + 09 | 5.28E + 08 | 1.13E + 09 |
| Percentage of global, % | 100 | 100 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 21.5 | 18.5 | 32.1 | 39.6 | 21.1 | 22.8 | 9.9 | 14.6 |
| Incidences | ||||||||||||
| Number, n | 62,585,283 (54,459,799, 70,979,260) | 87,648,969 (76,635,688, 98,654,602) | 9,488,136(8,323,560, 10,641,927) | 10,451,773 (9,214,844, 11,732,312) | 12,690,478 (11,074,182, 14,289,470) | 14,746,658 (13,014,486, 16,553,543) | 20,428,973 (17,767,242, 23,110,638) | 27,654,960 (24,344,576, 31,015,012) | 14,137,339 (12,145,938, 16,167,573) | 21,915,270 (19,025,662, 24,837,027) | 5,805,439 (4,904,231, 6,717,440) | 12,829,042 (10,860,141, 14,818,974) |
| Percentage of global, % | 100 | 100 | 15.2 | 11.9 | 20.3 | 16.8 | 32.6 | 31.6 | 22.6 | 25 | 9.3 | 14.6 |
| Percent change of incidences 1990–2019, % | 40.05 (36.84, 43.46) | 10.16 (7.99, 12.7) | 15.7 (11.78, 20.1) | 32.74 (28.03, 37.89) | 53.3 (47.9, 58.14) | 112.51 (109.2, 115.85) | ||||||
| All-age incidence rate | ||||||||||||
| Rate per 100,000 | 1169.85 (1017.97, 1326.75) | 1132.79 (990.45, 1275.02) | 1154.26 (1012.58, 1294.62) | 1031.37 (909.31, 1157.74) | 1103.11 (962.61, 1242.1) | 1030.94 (909.85, 1157.26) | 1189.98 (1034.93, 1346.18) | 1153.94 (1015.81, 1294.14) | 1251.48 (1075.2, 1431.2) | 1242.37 (1078.56, 1408.01) | 1099.22 (928.58, 1271.9) | 1136.64 (962.2, 1312.95) |
| Percent change of rate 1990–2019, % | -3.17 (-5.38, -0.81) | -10.65 (-12.4, -8.59) | -6.95 (-10.1, -3.41) | -4.91 (-8.28, -1.23) | -1.83 (-5.29, 1.27) | -0.56 (-2.11, 1.00) | ||||||
| Age-standardized incidence rate | ||||||||||||
| Rate per 100,000 | 1119.53 (977.26, 1262.34) | 1142.54 (995.9, 1289.44) | 1199.73 (1042.34, 1357.11) | 1219.59 (1059.44, 1376.83) | 1078.79 (942.74, 1215.21) | 1121.24 (979.29, 1266.04) | 1106.91 (969.11, 1242.76) | 1162.4 (1018.18, 1305.51) | 1172.49 (1024.75, 1322.31) | 1177.03 (1023.69, 1328.1) | 1051.73 (910.42, 1193.79) | 1048.94 (909.02, 1191.58) |
| Percent change of rate 1990–2019, % | 2.06 (1.13, 2.84) | 1.66 (0.41, 2.72) | 3.45 (2.38, 4.54) | 3.04 (2.08, 3.99) | -0.71 (-2.04, 0.51) | -4.02 (-4.79, -3.18) | ||||||
| APC model estimates | ||||||||||||
| Net drift of incidence rate, % per year | 0.089 (-0.005, 0.183) | 0.053 (-0.047, 0.154) | 0.103 (0.01, 0.196) | 0.15 (0.059, 0.242) | -0.003 (-0.095, 0.088) | -0.008 (-0.103, 0.087） | ||||||
Notes: All-age incidence rate: crude incidence rate
Age-standardized incidence rate is computed by direct standardization with global standard population in GBD 2019
Net drifts are estimates derived from the age-period-cohort model and denotes overall annual percentage change in incidence rate, which captures the contribution of the effects from calendar time and successive birth cohorts
Parentheses for all GBD health estimate indicate 95% uncertainty intervals; parentheses for net drift indicate 95% confidence intervals
SDI Socio-demographic Index, APC Age-period-cohort