Table 5.
Test characteristics for clinician predicted probability of all-cause, 60-day postdischarge mortality among all enrolled neonates and young children aged 1–59 months by clinician type
| Threshold % | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | Positive predictive value (95% CI) | Negative predictive value (95% CI) | Area under precision-recall curve (95% CI) |
| All clinicians (n=3895)* | 0.05 (0.03, 0.08), chance=0.03 | ||||
| ≤5 | 9.2 (4.2, 15.0) | 96.3 (95.7, 96.9) | 7.3 (3.5, 11.9) | 97.1 (96.9, 97.3) | |
| ≤20 | 9.2 (4.2, 15.0) | 96.6 (95.9, 97.2) | 7.7 (3.8, 12.7) | 97.1 (96.9, 97.3) | |
| ≤40 | 7.5 (3.3, 12.5) | 96.7 (96.2, 97.3) | 6.8 (2.9, 11.6) | 97.1 (96.9, 97.2) | |
| ≤60 | 5.8 (1.7, 10.8) | 97.1 (96.5, 97.6) | 5.8 (1.9, 10.5) | 97.0 (96.9, 97.2) | |
| ≤80 | 1.7 (0.0, 4.2) | 99.4 (99.2, 99.7) | 8.3 (0.0, 22.7) | 96.9 (96.9, 97.0) | |
| ≤99 | 0.8 (0.0, 2.5) | 99.9 (99.9, 100) | 50.0 (0.0, 100) | 96.9 (96.9, 96.9) | |
| Specialist or consultant (n=175) | 0.05 (0.02, 0.07), chance=0.04 | ||||
| ≤5 | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 97.6 (95.2, 99.4) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 95.9 (95.8, 95.9) | |
| ≤20 | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 97.6 (95.2, 99.4) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 95.9 (95.8, 95.9) | |
| ≤40 | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 97.6 (95.2, 99.4) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 95.9 (95.8, 95.9) | |
| ≤60 | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 97.6 (95.2, 99.4) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 95.9 (95.8, 95.9) | |
| ≤80 | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 98.8 (97.0, 100) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 95.9 (95.9, 96.0) | |
| ≤99 | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 100 (100, 100) | – | 96.0 (96.0, 96.0) | |
| Intern/resident (n=3502) | 0.05 (0.02, 0.08), chance=0.03 | ||||
| ≤5 | 8.8 (3.9, 14.7) | 97.1 (96.5, 97.6) | 8.3 (3.7, 13.8) | 97.3 (97.1, 97.4) | |
| ≤20 | 8.8 (3.9, 14.7) | 97.2 (96.6, 97.7) | 8.5 (3.8, 14.2) | 97.3 (97.1, 97.4) | |
| ≤40 | 6.9 (2.9, 12.7) | 97.2 (96.6, 97.7) | 6.8 (2.7, 12.0) | 97.2 (97.1, 97.4) | |
| ≤60 | 5.8 (1.9, 10.8) | 97.2 (96.7, 97.8) | 5.9 (1.9, 11.0) | 97.2 (97.1, 97.3) | |
| ≤80 | 1.9 (0.0, 4.9) | 99.6 (99.4, 99.8) | 11.8 (0.0, 30.8) | 97.1 (97.1, 97.2) | |
| ≤99 | 0.9 (0.0, 2.9) | 99.9 (99.9, 100.0) | 50.0 (0.0, 100.8) | 97.1 (97.1, 97.2) | |
| Medical officer (n=218) | 0.05 (0.03, 0.08), chance=0.05 | ||||
| ≤5 | 18.2 (0.0, 45.5) | 82.6 (77.8, 87.9) | 5.0 (0, 12.2) | 94.9 (93.8, 96.5) | |
| ≤20 | 18.2 (0.0, 45.5) | 85.9 (81.2, 90.3) | 6.1 (0, 14.8) | 95.1 (94.1, 96.7) | |
| ≤40 | 18.2 (0.0, 45.5) | 88.9 (84.5, 92.8) | 7.7 (0, 18.7) | 95.3 (94.2, 96.8) | |
| ≤60 | 9.1 (0.0, 27.3) | 93.7 (90.3, 96.6) | 6.7 (0, 23.1) | 95.1 (94.5, 96.1) | |
| ≤80 | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 97.6 (95.2, 99.5) | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 94.8 (94.7, 94.9) | |
| ≤99 | 0.0 (0.0, 0.0) | 100 (100, 100) | – | 94.9 (94.9, 94.9) |
*There was one respondent who estimated that the discharged child was at risk of hospital readmission but did not assign a proportion.