Table 1.

Estimated median vaccine efficacy (VE) with 95% CIs (in brackets) calculated after 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 simulated outbreaks, by varying the vaccination coverage, nominal VE and intervention/vaccination times. Baseline values: 50% coverage, 70% nominal VE, intervention and vaccination at 21 and 35 days, respectively.

Number of outbreaks	10	20	50	100	200
Baseline	83% (-$\infty$-100%)	76% (-$\infty$-100%)	67% (-$\infty$-100%)	69% (0–100%)	67% (42–85%)
Higher Coverage (70%)	82% (-$\infty$-100%)	75% (-$\infty$-100%)	70% (-50–100%)	67% (0–100%)	67% (47–89%)
Lower Coverage (30%)	100% (-$\infty$-100%)	87% (-$\infty$-100%)	78% (-$\infty$-100%)	76% (0–100%)	72% (31–100%)
Higher Vaccine Efficacy (90%)	100% (-$\infty$-100%)	100% (0–100%)	100% (0–100%)	88% (50–100%)	89% (70–100%)
Lower Vaccine Efficacy (50%)	55% (-$\infty$-100%)	52% (-$\infty$-100%)	53% (-200–100%)	52% (0–83%)	52% (21–73%)
Later intervention and vaccination times (90 days after first case)	73% (-$\infty$-100%)	75% (-$\infty$-100%)	67% (-270–100%)	67% (0–91%)	67% (33–86%)
Earlier intervention and vaccination times (14 days after first case)	74% (-$\infty$-100%)	70% (-$\infty$-100%)	69% (-50%-100%)	67% (0–87%)	67% (43–80%)
Longer delay from vaccination to infection (mean: 20 days)	78% (-$\infty$-100%)	74% (-$\infty$-100%)	72% (0–100%)	71% (50–93%)	71% (58–84%)
R increases by 25%	79% (-$\infty$-100%)	75% (-$\infty -$ 100%)	71% (0–100%)	72% (39–92%)	69% (53–85%)
R increases by 50%	75% (-$\infty$-100%)	75% (-100–100%)	72% (29–93%)	71% (47–86%)	70% (59–82%)
Optimistic scenario, same R	79% (-$\infty$-100%)	71% (-4–100%)	69% (33–100%)	71% (48–86%)	70% (57–80%)
Optimistic scenario, R increases by 50%	75% (0–100%)	71% (0–100%)	72% (50–87%)	71% (58–82%)	70% (63–78%)

* The optimistic scenario involves a combination of: longer delay from vaccination to infection, higher coverage, earlier intervention and vaccination but retaining a 70% nominal VE.