Table 2.
Median number of MVD cases overall, median number of cases in both arms and average number of outbreaks required to exceed 150 cases in both arms, with 95% CIs (in brackets) under different scenarios.
| All cases | Cases in vaccine and placebo arms | Outbreaks required to exceed 150 cases | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline | 2 (1–27) | 0 (0–2) | 767 (373–1225) |
| Higher Coverage (70%) |
2 (1–30) | 0 (0–2) | 758 (385–1243) |
| Lower Coverage (30%) |
2 (1–33) | 0 (0–1) | 887 (482–1392) |
| Higher Vaccine Efficacy (90%) |
2 (1–27) | 0 (0–1) | 1011 (532–1604) |
| Lower Vaccine Efficacy (50%) | 2 (1–29) | 0 (0–2) | 622 (337–983) |
| Later intervention and vaccination times (90 days after first case) | 2 (1–79) | 0 (0–2) | 797 (448–1190) |
| Earlier intervention and vaccination times (14 days after first case) |
2 (1–16) | 0 (0–2) | 687 (391–1059) |
| Longer delay from vaccination to infection (mean: 20 days) |
2 (1–23) | 0 (0–2) | 387 (156–696) |
| R increases by 25% | 3 (1–43) | 0 (0–4) | 452 (195–781) |
| R increases by 50% | 4 (1–70) | 0 (0–5) | 315 (172–482) |
| Optimistic scenario* | 2 (1–15) | 0 (0–4) | 264 (107–490) |
| Optimistic scenario, R increases by 50% | 4 (1–30) | 0 (0–9) | 137 (27–251) |
*The optimistic scenario involves a combination of: longer delay from vaccination to infection, higher coverage, earlier intervention and vaccination but retaining a 70% nominal VE.