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. 2023 Apr 26;77(1):94–100. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciad238

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© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Figure 3. — Trends in tuberculosis case notification rates. Quarterly tuberculosis diagnoses per 100 000 person-years (points), with model-predicted tuberculosis diagnoses (solid lines for observed [ACF] scenarios and dotted lines for counterfactual scenarios). Red is ACF areas, blue is non-ACF areas, orange represents a counterfactual scenario where tuberculosis diagnoses increase in ACF area by the same magnitude as they did in non-ACF areas. Top panel is model A (ACF area only) and bottom panel is model B (compared to non-ACF areas). See methods and appendix for model description. Abbreviation: ACF, active case finding.