Table 2.
Model input parameters for estimation of costs and effects related to MammaPrint® and endocrine therapy: Transition probabilities used to populate the decision tree and Markov model
| Value | SE | Alpha | Beta | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision tree—probabilities | |||||
| Ultra-low risk of recurrence based on MammaPrint® (%) | 13 | 0.012 | 98 | 652 | [7] |
| Low or high risk of recurrence based on MammaPrint® (%) | 87 | 652 | 98 | ||
| Markov model—probabilities | |||||
| Probability of death | |||||
| Women with ultra-low risk of recurrence based on MammaPrint® | Based on life tablesa (Supplemental file 10) | [20] | |||
| Probability to adhere to ET | |||||
| Year 1 (%) | 87 | n.v. | n.v. | n.v. | [24] |
| Year 2 (%) | 78 | ||||
| Year 3 (%) | 69 | ||||
| Year 4 (%) | 63 | ||||
| Year 5 (%) | 49 | ||||
ET endocrine therapy, n.v. not varied, PSA probabilistic sensitivity analyses, SE standard error
aAnnual probabilities are reported by Statistics Netherlands, we calculated probabilities for each cycle. These probabilities are not varied in the PSA