Table 3.
Model input parameters for estimation of costs and effects related to MammaPrint® and endocrine therapy: Probabilities of major adverse events in premenopausal and postmenopausal patients treated with and without ET and probabilities of death from major adverse events
| Probabilities of major adverse events—probabilities of thromboembolic events are applied for 5 years and of endometrium cancer and other cancers for 10 years | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Post-menopausal women | Per cycle (SE—Alpha/Beta) | Sources | ||
| AI [21] | Tamoxifen followed by AI [21] | No ET—RR [8] | ||
| Thromboembolic events (%) | 0.0484 (0.0003–2.4/4850) | 0.1038 (0.0005–5/4809) | 0.031 (0.001–7/2241/0.00–11/2229a) | [8, 21] |
| Endometrium cancer (%) | 0.0057 (0.0004–0.2/3075) | 0.0189 (0.0004–0.6/3044) | 0.0091 (0.001–8/2240/0.00–5/2235a) | |
| Other cancers (%) | 0.1933 (0.0008 –5.9/3069) | 0.1732 (0.0008–5.3/3040) | 0.1419b (0.002–28/2220/0.003–38/2205a) | |
| Pre-menopausal women | Per cycle (SE—Alpha/Beta) | Sources | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamoxifen + ovarian suppression—[9, 43] | No ET—[9] | |||
| Thromboembolic events (%) | 0.063 (0.0005–1/2325) | 0.039 (0.0007–0.5/1005) | [9, 43] | |
| Endometrium cancer (%) | 0.015 (0.0004–1.7/3577) | 0.010 (0.0004–1.7/3573) | ||
| Other cancers (%) | 0.122 (0.0004–1.7/3577) | 0.109 (0.0004–1.7/3573) | ||
| Death from: | Per cycle (SE) | Sources | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thromboembolic events (%) | 7.7 (0.006–91/1111b) | [9, 22] | ||
| Endometrium cancer (%) | 21 (0.021–78/296b) | [44] | ||
| Other cancers (%) | 27 (0.027–72/197b) | Assumptions |
Values in italics indicate SE—Alpha/Beta
AI aromatase inhibitor, ET endocrine therapy, RR relative risk, SE standard error
aProbabilistic RRs were calculated by dividing two probabilities and using the SE of both. Probabilistic RRs were applied to the probabilistic
bSE assumed to be 10% of mean values of exemestane