Table 3.
Estimated proportions diagnosed via Two Week Wait referral (as opposed to any other route): Results from linear probability models
|
Model 1: Unadjusted
|
Model 2: Demographic-adjusted1
|
Model 3: Adjusted2
|
||||
|
Estimate
|
95%CI
|
Estimate
|
95%CI
|
Estimate
|
95%CI
|
|
| Population average (intercept) | 13.77 | 13.33-14.20 | 13.77 | 13.33-14.20 | 13.77 | 13.33-14.20 |
| Cheshire and Merseyside | -4.16 | -5.79--2.53 | -4.08 | -5.72--2.45 | -3.66 | -5.28--2.04 |
| East Midlands | 1.25 | -0.18-2.68 | 1.07 | -0.35-2.50 | 1.02 | -0.38-2.43 |
| East of England -North | 1.87 | -0.04-3.79 | 1.83 | -0.09-3.75 | 1.71 | -0.20-3.62 |
| East of England -South | -2.67 | -4.31--1.03 | -2.85 | -4.49--1.21 | -3.01 | -4.64--1.38 |
| Greater Manchester | -2.11 | -3.83--0.39 | -1.92 | -3.65--0.19 | -1.78 | -3.50--0.06 |
| Humber, Coast and Vale | 2.13 | -0.26-4.52 | 1.93 | -0.46-4.33 | 2.06 | -0.31-4.43 |
| Kent and Medway | -1.72 | -4.17-0.73 | -1.55 | -3.98-0.89 | -1.80 | -4.24-0.64 |
| Lancashire and South Cumbria | 1.36 | -1.00-3.72 | 1.37 | -0.99-3.72 | 1.49 | -0.84-3.82 |
| North Central London | -4.70 | -7.48--1.91 | -4.57 | -7.36--1.78 | -4.48 | -7.27--1.68 |
| North East London | -1.92 | -4.74-0.90 | -1.32 | -4.14-1.51 | -1.04 | -3.84-1.76 |
| North West and South West London | -5.38 | -6.99--3.77 | -5.15 | -6.76--3.53 | -4.91 | -6.51--3.30 |
| Northern | 3.62 | 1.97-5.27 | 3.6 | 1.94-5.25 | 3.66 | 2.02-5.30 |
| Peninsula | -0.40 | -2.52-1.73 | -0.39 | -2.52-1.74 | -0.64 | -2.76-1.49 |
| Somerset, Wiltshire, Avon and Gloucestershire | 1.18 | -0.79-3.15 | 1.03 | -0.94-2.99 | 1.18 | -0.76-3.13 |
| South East London | -0.49 | -3.44-2.47 | -0.02 | -2.97-2.93 | 0.27 | -2.67-3.20 |
| South Yorkshire and Bassetlaw | 1.50 | -1.21-4.22 | 1.82 | -0.89-4.54 | 1.93 | -0.76-4.63 |
| Surrey and Sussex | -0.99 | -2.72-0.74 | -1.20 | -2.94-0.54 | -1.41 | -3.15-0.34 |
| Thames Valley | 0.81 | -2.00-3.63 | 0.45 | -2.37-3.27 | 0.30 | -2.48-3.09 |
| Wessex | 5.17 | 3.05-7.30 | 4.89 | 2.76-7.02 | 4.73 | 2.63-6.83 |
| West Midlands | -1.37 | -2.58--0.16 | -1.30 | -2.51--0.09 | -1.55 | -2.76--0.35 |
| West Yorkshire and Harrogate | 2.68 | 0.50-4.86 | 2.91 | 0.73-5.08 | 3.12 | 0.96-5.28 |
| Age 0-44 | -8.44 | -10.44--6.43 | -7.76 | -9.77--5.75 | -8.76 | -10.78--6.74 |
| Age 45-54 | -1.13 | -2.90-0.65 | -0.84 | -2.62-0.93 | -1.37 | -3.14-0.40 |
| Age 55-64 | 1.12 | 0.03-2.21 | 1.25 | 0.16-2.33 | 1.03 | -0.06-2.13 |
| Age 65-74 | 2.32 | 1.57-3.08 | 2.29 | 1.53-3.05 | 2.16 | 1.41-2.91 |
| Age 75-84 | 0.42 | -0.22-1.06 | 0.33 | -0.31-0.97 | 0.56 | -0.08-1.20 |
| Age 85+ | -3.62 | -4.44--2.80 | -3.67 | -4.50--2.84 | -3.46 | -4.30--2.61 |
| Female | -0.17 | -0.60-0.26 | 0.04 | -0.39-0.46 | -0.27 | -0.70-0.16 |
| Male | 0.18 | -0.27-0.63 | -0.04 | -0.49-0.42 | 0.29 | -0.17-0.74 |
| Quintile 1 (least deprived) | 0.91 | -0.02-1.83 | 0.74 | -0.20-1.67 | 0.42 | -0.51-1.35 |
| Quintile 2 | 0.59 | -0.27-1.46 | 0.49 | -0.38-1.35 | 0.28 | -0.57-1.14 |
| Quintile 3 | 0.29 | -0.58-1.17 | 0.32 | -0.56-1.20 | 0.33 | -0.55-1.20 |
| Quintile 4 | -0.44 | -1.31-0.43 | -0.31 | -1.18-0.56 | -0.20 | -1.06-0.67 |
| Quintile 5 (most deprived) | -1.38 | -2.24--0.52 | -1.26 | -2.15--0.37 | -0.86 | -1.74-0.03 |
| 2006 | -3.86 | -5.30--2.42 | -4.4 | -5.84--2.97 | ||
| 2007 | -3.64 | -5.11--2.16 | -4.17 | -5.64--2.69 | ||
| 2008 | -3.31 | -4.72--1.91 | -3.90 | -5.29--2.51 | ||
| 2009 | -2.84 | -4.21--1.47 | -3.07 | -4.44--1.69 | ||
| 2010 | -1.93 | -3.31--0.55 | -2.15 | -3.53--0.77 | ||
| 2011 | -1.98 | -3.35--0.61 | -2.12 | -3.49--0.75 | ||
| 2012 | 0.66 | -0.82-2.13 | 0.73 | -0.72-2.18 | ||
| 2013 | 1.07 | -0.37-2.51 | 1.13 | -0.30-2.56 | ||
| 2014 | 0.22 | -1.21-1.65 | 0.54 | -0.88-1.96 | ||
| 2015 | 2.52 | 1.07-3.97 | 3.00 | 1.57-4.44 | ||
| 2016 | 2.99 | 1.54-4.44 | 3.39 | 1.95-4.82 | ||
| 2017 | 6.04 | 4.52-7.55 | 6.42 | 4.92-7.93 | ||
| Adenomas and adenocarcinomas | 0.20 | 0.08-0.32 | 0.04 | -0.08-0.16 | ||
| Other morphology | -2.44 | -3.86--1.02 | -0.49 | -1.99-1.02 | ||
| eCCA | -0.38 | -1.29-0.53 | -0.52 | -1.45-0.40 | ||
| iCCA | 0.12 | -0.13-0.37 | 0.07 | -0.19-0.33 | ||
| Other subtype | -0.30 | -1.97-1.38 | 0.72 | -0.97-2.42 | ||
| Charlson 0 | 1.64 | 1.40-1.87 | 1.68 | 1.44-1.92 | ||
| Charlson 1 | -2.93 | -4.00--1.85 | -2.88 | -3.95--1.81 | ||
| Charlson 2 | -4.87 | -6.23--3.51 | -5.03 | -6.40--3.67 | ||
| Charlson 3 + | -7.60 | -8.78--6.42 | -7.98 | -9.19--6.77 | ||
| Liver disease -No | 0.32 | 0.22-0.43 | 0.34 | 0.23-0.44 | ||
| Liver disease -Yes | -4.28 | -5.65--2.90 | -4.44 | -5.86--3.02 | ||
1
Adjustment for: Age, gender, income deprivation quintile.
2
Adjustment for: Age, gender, income deprivation quintile, Charlson comorbidity index, underlying liver disease at diagnosis, diagnosis year, tumour morphology, tumour sub-type.
Apart from intercept, estimates represent the percentage-point difference from the weighted cohort average probability of each route. If 95%CI does not contain zero, the percentage-point difference from average will be more than 2 SD and indicates variation that is unlikely to be due to chance. Bold indicates a difference that is > 2 SD above or below average. iCCA: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma; eCCA: Extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.