Table 1.
Sensitivity Analysis for the EMPULSE trial Win Ratio Approach
A. Different Ways of Handling HF Events | |||||
Criterion to Declare a Win | % of Wins using HF Events | Overall Result | |||
on empa | on placebo | Win Ratio (95% CI) | P | % tied | |
Number of HF events | 10.59% | 7.65% | 1.36 (1.10, 1.69) | 0.0051 | 6.5% |
Time to First HF event | 10.79% | 8.25% | 1.36 (1.09, 1.68) | 0.0057 | 6.4% |
Both in Sequence* | 10.83% | 8.21% | 1.36 (1.09, 1.68) | 0.0054 | 6.4% |
B. Different Ways of Handling KCCQ-TSS change in 90 days | |||||
Criterion to Declare a Win | % of Wins using KCCQ | Overall Result | |||
on empa | on placebo | Win Ratio (95% CI) | P | % tied | |
any difference | 38.94% | 30.35% | 1.34 (1.09, 1.64) | 0.0051 | 0.5% |
≥2 points | 38.16% | 29.54% | 1.34 (1.09, 1.65) | 0.0050 | 2.1% |
≥5 points* | 35.91% | 27.48% | 1.36 (1.09, 1.68) | 0.0054 | 6.4% |
≥10 points | 32.39% | 24.06% | 1.39 (1.10, 1.75) | 0.0050 | 13.3% |
≥15 points | 28.83% | 20.70% | 1.42 (1.11, 1.81) | 0.0046 | 20.3% |
KCCQ-TSS not used | 0% | 0% | 1.50 (0.99, 2.26) | 0.055 | 69.5% |
the pre-specified primary analysis
all analyses are stratified, with multiple imputation for missing KCCQ at 90 days
Table 1A and 1B shows how the win ratio results are affected by a variety of sensitivity analyses. Table 1A shows that the win ratio is virtually unchanged if we use either (i) number of HF events, or (ii) the time to first HF event, or (iii) both in sequence (the pre-specified primary analysis in EMPULSE). Table 1B shows how the win ratio is affected by varying the winning margin required for the KCCQ-TSS or by omitting this level completely. The win ratio increases with larger margins though the p-value remains fairly unchanged.