Table 8.
ETS model information and parameter estimates with their error measures for China
| Indicator | Method | ME | RMSE | MAE | MPE | MAPE | MASE | ACF1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Health Expenditure (% of GDP) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.99;β = 0.13 |
0.04 | 0.19 | 0.14 | 0.75 | 3.32 | 0.87 | 0.07 |
| Total Health Expenditure Per Capita ($PPP) |
ETS(M,A,N) α = 0.99;β = 0.00 |
6.68 | 22.26 | 15.85 | 0.64 | 3.57 | 0.53 | 0.07 |
| Government Health Expenditure Per Capita ($PPP) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.99;β = 0.20 |
-0.01 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.60 | 1.93 | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| Pre-Paid Private Health Expenditure Per Capita ($PPP) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.77;β = 0.44 |
0.04 | 0.12 | 0.10 | -0.75 | 2.04 | 0.97 | -0.07 |
| Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditure Per Capita ($PPP) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.95;β = 0.00 |
0.00 | 0.05 | 0.04 | -0.02 | 1.18 | 0.68 | 0.01 |
| Government Health Expenditure (% of CHE) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.99;β = 0.86 |
0.00 | 0.05 | 0.04 | -7.54 | 19.99 | 0.39 | 0.03 |
| Pre-Paid Private Health Expenditure (% of CHE) |
ETS(A,Ad,N) α = 0.70;β = 0.58 |
0.02 | 0.12 | 0.11 | -0.93 | 4.62 | 0.85 | -0.01 |
| Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditure (% of CHE) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.99;β = 0.00 |
0.00 | 0.07 | 0.05 | -6.95 | 26.71 | 0.67 | 0.34 |
ETS Exponential smoothing model; error, trend, and seasonal components are the three major parameters, which can be additive (A), multiplicative (M), or none (N); α = smoothing parameter for the level component; β = smoothing parameter for trend component; ME Mean Error, RMSE Root Mean Squared Error, MAE Mean Absolute Error, MPE Mean Percentage Error, MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error, MASE Mean Absolute Scaled Error, ACFI Auto-correlation of Errors at lag 1