Table 9.
ETS model information and parameter estimates with their error measures for South Africa
| Indicator | Method | ME | RMSE | MAE | MPE | MAPE | MASE | ACF1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Health Expenditure (% of GDP) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.94;β = 0.00 |
0.00 | 0.24 | 0.18 | -0.07 | 2.17 | 0.93 | 0.00 |
| Total Health Expenditure Per Capita ($PPP) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.58;β = 0.56 |
-1.45 | 26.67 | 20.66 | -0.14 | 2.20 | 0.73 | 0.03 |
| Government Health Expenditure Per Capita ($PPP) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.96;β = 0.00 |
0.00 | 0.07 | 0.05 | -0.04 | 1.95 | 0.89 | 0.11 |
| Pre-Paid Private Health Expenditure Per Capita ($PPP) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.99;β = 0.26 |
0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.98 | 0.82 | 0.03 |
| Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditure Per Capita ($PPP) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.00;β = 0.00 |
0.00 | 0.06 | 0.05 | -0.03 | 1.11 | 1.23 | 0.32 |
| Government Health Expenditure (% of CHE) |
ETS(A,Ad,N) α = 0.03;β = 0.03 |
0.01 | 0.05 | 0.04 | -4.16 | 15.39 | 0.84 | 0.05 |
| Pre-Paid Private Health Expenditure (% of CHE) |
ETS(A,A,N) α = 0.23;β = 0.00 |
0.00 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 18.14 | 56.39 | 1.16 | 0.27 |
| Out-of-Pocket Health Expenditure (% of CHE) |
ETS(A,Ad,N) α = 0.00;β = 0.00 |
0.00 | 0.06 | 0.05 | -0.18 | 1.98 | 0.84 | 0.32 |
ETS Exponential smoothing model; error, trend, and seasonal components are the three major parameters, which can be additive (A), multiplicative (M), or none (N); α = smoothing parameter for the level component; β = smoothing parameter for trend component; ME Mean Error, RMSE Root Mean Squared Error, MAE Mean Absolute Error, MPE Mean Percentage Error, MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error, MASE Mean Absolute Scaled Error, ACFI Auto-correlation of Errors at lag 1