Fig. 5.

Future damages of drought-induced fossil generation could be mitigated under low GHG scenarios and lower-carbon electricity sector scenarios. (A) Annual drought-induced damages projected by 33 climate models under the SSP3-7.0 scenario over 2030 to 2059 (relative to the 1980 to 2014 average of each model). (B) Declines in monetized damages under low GHG scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5), relative to the SSP3-7.0 scenario. (C) Projected electricity sector transitions reduce drought-induced damages at varying magnitudes (mean values of the 33 models under the SSP3-7.0). (D) Increasing importance of the drought-induced GHG emissions relative to the total GHG emissions from the electricity sector, under the high RE scenario. GHG emissions included the CO₂ emissions and potential CH₄ leakage (aggregated using the global warming potential of 100 y). Drought-induced emissions are calculated using the average runoffs in 2030 to 2059 (Left panel, “average year”) or the 10th percentile lowest runoffs during 2030 to 2059 (Right panel, “dry year”).