Table 3. PRCCs quantifying the relationship between additional GDP growth in each vaccine scenario (relative to the “no-new-vaccine” counterfactual) and selected country characteristics.
Adolescent/adult vaccine | Infant vaccine | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficient (95% interval) |
p-value | Coefficient (95% interval) |
p-value | |
TB incidence rate per 100,000 | 0.79 (0.67, 0.91) | <0.001 | 0.58 (0.42, 0.74) | <0.001 |
HIV prevalence | 0.00 (−0.20, 0.19) | 0.99 | −0.05 (−0.24, 0.15) | 0.63 |
Year of vaccine introduction | −0.57 (−0.73, −0.41) | <0.001 | −0.46 (−0.63, −0.29) | <0.001 |
Per capita GDP (logged) | −0.03 (−0.22, 0.17) | 0.77 | 0.10 (−0.09, 0.30) | 0.31 |
Savings rate (s) | 0.02 (−0.18, 0.21) | 0.84 | 0.25 (0.06, 0.44) | 0.01 |
Growth rate of total factor productivity (g) | 0.13 (−0.06, 0.33) | 0.18 | 0.15 (−0.04, 0.35) | 0.11 |
Growth rate of educational capital (h) | 0.11 (−0.08, 0.31) | 0.26 | 0.05 (−0.15, 0.24) | 0.64 |
Output elasticity of physical capital (α) | −0.27 (−0.46, −0.08) | 0.01 | −0.29 (−0.48, −0.10) | 0.01 |
Depreciation rate (δ) | 0.03 (−0.17, 0.22) | 0.79 | −0.11 (−0.31, 0.08) | 0.25 |
Note: For each country, the outcome represents the mean percentage increase in GDP for a given vaccination scenario relative to the “no-new-vaccine” counterfactual, cumulated over the 2028–2080 period. PRCCs quantify the direction and strength of the monotonic relationship between this outcome and each country characteristic, controlling for the effect of other characteristics.
GDP, gross domestic product; PRCC; partial rank correlation coefficient; TB, tuberculosis.