Table 2.

Excess death (ED) by causes of death, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, 2020

Causes of death*	Observed deaths (count)	Expected deaths (count)†‡	ED (count)‡	ED per cent above expected (%)
Indirectly associated with COVID-19§	3963	3534–3704	259–429	7%–12%
Influenza and pneumonia (COVID-19 like diseases)	168	28–43	125–140	291%–500%
Chronic lower respiratory diseases	75	30–44	31–45	70%–150%
Diabetes	33	15–21	12–18	57%–120%
Other diseases of the circulatory system	115	77–96	19–38	20%–49%
Chronic IHD	1725	1299–1440	285–426	20%–33%
IHD	1889	1445–1585	304–444	19%–31%
Myocardial infarctions	132	93–115	17–39	15%–42%
Perinatal death (during 0–6 days of life)	166	132–151	15–34	10%–26%
Cerebrovascular diseases (ischaemic, haemorrhagic, lacunary and other brain circulatory disorders)	361	311–344	17–50	5%–16%
Malignancies	700	615–675	25–85	4%–14%
Stroke	247	210–239	8–37	3%–18%
Intended and unintended traumas, poisoning, suicide and other adverse events	142	130–141	1–12	1%–9%

*Other diseases of the respiratory system, hypertension and heart failure were not included due to the small number of deaths (up to 10).

†Expected deaths were calculated as the difference between observed and ED numbers for threshold and average (baseline).

‡The range of values is based on the average (baseline) and the 95% upper CI (threshold) of historical deaths (2015–2019). For simplicity, we only report ED per cent above the threshold in the narrative and in graphics.

§Total observed deaths not directly attributable to COVID-19 (3963) were calculated as: total deaths (4660)−COVID-19 deaths (697). COVID-19 deaths included laboratory confirmed (222)+probable (335)+deaths due to unspecified pneumonia (140).

IHD, ischaemic heart disease.