Table 3.
Predictive values of prognostic scores for 6-week mortality
| Scores | AUC | Youden index | Cutoff value | SEN (%) | SPE (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | Brier | R2 | P in H-L test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All patients | ||||||||||
| CLIF-C AD | 0.871 | 0.63 | 43 | 100.0 | 63.1 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.045 | 0.278 | 0.910 |
| CTP | 0.737 | 0.40 | 7 | 84.6 | 55.9 | 10.1 | 98.4 | 0.051 | 0.090 | 0.223 |
| MELD | 0.757 | 0.49 | 12 | 69.2 | 79.7 | 16.7 | 97.8 | 0.050 | 0.123 | 0.327 |
| MELD-Na | 0.822 | 0.54 | 12 | 76.9 | 77.5 | 16.7 | 98.3 | 0.046 | 0.207 | 0.269 |
| HBV patients | ||||||||||
| CLIF-C AD | 0.900 | 0.78 | 44 | 100.0 | 77.7 | 25.8 | 100.0 | 0.056 | 0.321 | 0.314 |
| CTP | 0.781 | 0.48 | 7 | 87.5 | 60.2 | 14.6 | 98.4 | 0.061 | 0.162 | 0.358 |
| MELD | 0.755 | 0.49 | 12 | 75.0 | 73.8 | 18.2 | 97.4 | 0.057 | 0.192 | 0.733 |
| MELD-Na | 0.905 | 0.65 | 11 | 100.0 | 65.1 | 18.2 | 100.0 | 0.041 | 0.470 | 0.798 |
| Non-HBV patients | ||||||||||
| CLIF-C AD | 0.865 | 0.70 | 52 | 80.0 | 89.9 | 25.0 | 99.1 | 0.034 | 0.280 | 0.804 |
| CTP | 0.679 | 0.34 | 6 | 100.0 | 34.5 | 6.0 | 100.0 | 0.039 | 0.023 | 0.742 |
| MELD | 0.753 | 0.45 | 12 | 60.0 | 84.9 | 14.3 | 98.1 | 0.039 | 0.047 | 0.108 |
| MELD-Na | 0.709 | 0.42 | 12 | 60.0 | 81.5 | 12.0 | 98.0 | 0.039 | 0.013 | 0.028 |
Bold values indicate statistical significance.
AUC, area under receiver operating characteristic curve; CLIF-C AD, Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute Decompensation; CTP, Child-Turcotte-Pugh; H-L test, Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test; MELD, Model for End-stage Liver Disease; MELD-Na, MELD-Sodium; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; SEN, sensitivity; SPE, specificity.