Table 4.
Predictive values of prognostic scores for the composite outcome
| Scores | AUC | Youden index | Cutoff value | SEN (%) | SPE (%) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | Brier | R2 | P in H-L test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All patients | ||||||||||
| CLIF-C AD | 0.741 | 0.63 | 43 | 100.0 | 63.1 | 13.7 | 100.0 | 0.119 | 0.141 | 0.395 |
| CTP | 0.730 | 0.40 | 7 | 84.6 | 55.9 | 10.1 | 98.4 | 0.121 | 0.126 | 0.064 |
| MELD | 0.681 | 0.49 | 12 | 69.2 | 79.7 | 16.7 | 97.8 | 0.050 | 0.123 | 0.237 |
| MELD-Na | 0.727 | 0.54 | 12 | 76.9 | 77.5 | 16.7 | 98.3 | 0.120 | 0.127 | 0.164 |
| HBV patients | ||||||||||
| CLIF-C AD | 0.721 | 0.40 | 44 | 61.1 | 78.5 | 35.5 | 91.2 | 0.121 | 0.149 | 0.912 |
| CTP | 0.724 | 0.32 | 6 | 94.4 | 37.6 | 22.7 | 97.2 | 0.122 | 0.152 | 0.619 |
| MELD | 0.688 | 0.37 | 12 | 61.1 | 76.3 | 33.3 | 91.0 | 0.122 | 0.094 | 0.433 |
| MELD-Na | 0.781 | 0.46 | 11 | 77.8 | 67.7 | 31.8 | 94.0 | 0.105 | 0.290 | 0.655 |
| Non-HBV patients | ||||||||||
| CLIF-C AD | 0.751 | 0.51 | 42 | 94.4 | 56.6 | 27.0 | 98.4 | 0.117 | 0.144 | 0.371 |
| CTP | 0.743 | 0.40 | 8 | 61.1 | 79.3 | 33.3 | 92.3 | 0.119 | 0.102 | 0.019 |
| MELD | 0.682 | 0.45 | 8 | 94.4 | 34.0 | 19.5 | 97.3 | 0.122 | 0.049 | 0.198 |
| MELD-Na | 0.684 | 0.29 | 8 | 100 | 29.3 | 19.4 | 100.0 | 0.123 | 0.031 | 0.057 |
AUC, area under receiver operating characteristic curve; CLIF-C AD, Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute Decompensation; CTP, Child-Turcotte-Pugh; H-L test, Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test; MELD, Model for End-stage Liver Disease; MELD-Na, MELD-Sodium; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; SEN, sensitivity; SPE, specificity.