TABLE 3.

RMSE and bias for AUC predictions from models for given number of concentration measurements over a 48‐h period on 1000 subsampled patients.

		A priori	One	Two	Three
Bias	Adane et al.	$53.4\pm 0.5$	$29.9\pm 0.4$	$23.8\pm 0.3$	$21.1\pm 0.2$
	Mangin et al.	$63.4\pm 0.5$	$23.2\pm 0.3$	$20.7\pm 0.3$	$9.7\pm 0.2$
	Medellin‐G et al.	$55.4\pm 0.5$	$22.4\pm 0.3$	$18.3\pm 0.3$	$12.6\pm 0.2$
	Revilla et al.	$3.7\pm 0.3$	$4.0\pm 0.2$	$3.5\pm 0.2$	$4.4\pm 0.2$
	Roberts et al.	$7.9\pm 0.3$	$4.5\pm 0.2$	$5.4\pm 0.2$	$4.2\pm 0.1$
	Thomson et al.	$22.6\pm 0.4$	$14.2\pm 0.3$	$11.3\pm 0.3$	$10.7\pm 0.2$
	Naïve Ensemble	$34.4\pm 0.4$	$16.4\pm 0.2$	$13.8\pm 0.2$	$10.4\pm 0.2$
	PBMA	$34.4\pm 0.4$	$4.7\pm 0.2$	$4.8\pm 0.2$	$3.4\pm 0.2$
	SMC	$18.4\pm 0.5$	$8.2\pm 0.3$	$7.1\pm 0.2$	$5.2\pm 0.2$
	SMC + PBMA	$26.4\pm 0.1$	$6.5\pm 0.2$	$5.9\pm 0.2$	$4.3\pm 0.2$
RMSE	Adane et al.	$80.0\pm 0.7$	$47.3\pm 0.4$	$40.9\pm 0.6$	$32.5\pm 0.3$
	Mangin et al.	$83.3\pm 0.6$	$36.2\pm 0.3$	$33.0\pm 0.3$	$21.4\pm 0.2$
	Medellin‐G et al.	$76.5\pm 0.6$	$33.5\pm 0.2$	$28.5\pm 0.2$	$20.9\pm 0.2$
	Revilla et al.	$32.7\pm 0.4$	$21.6\pm 0.2$	$20.0\pm 0.2$	$16.7\pm 0.2$
	Roberts et al.	$35.8\pm 0.3$	$20.6\pm 0.1$	$20.0\pm 0.2$	$16.1\pm 0.1$
	Thomson et al.	$48.2\pm 0.4$	$30.2\pm 0.2$	$25.8\pm 0.2$	$20.9\pm 0.1$
	Naïve ensemble	$55.7\pm 0.4$	$28.5\pm 0.2$	$24.9\pm 0.2$	$19.3\pm 0.2$
	PBMA	$55.7\pm 0.4$	$20.8\pm 0.2$	$19.3\pm 0.2$	$15.2\pm 0.2$
	SMC	$41.8\pm 0.5$	$22.1\pm 0.2$	$19.6\pm 0.2$	$15.2\pm 0.2$
	SMC + PBMA	$47.5\pm 0.5$	$20.5\pm 0.1$	$18.7\pm 0.2$	$14.6\pm 0.2$

Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; PBMA, Performance‐based Model Averaging; RMSE, root‐mean‐square error; SMC, Synthetic Model Combination.