Table 2.
The C-indices of different risk models for the all-cause mortality prediction
| Training set | Validation set | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Men | Women | Men | Women | |
| C-index (95% CI) | ||||
| Overall | ||||
| Blood biomarker score | 0.71 (0.70–0.71) | 0.68 (0.67–0.68) | 0.73 (0.72–0.75) | 0.70 (0.68–0.73) |
| Blood biomarker score plus baseline age | 0.74 (0.74–0.75) | 0.72 (0.71–0.73) | 0.76 (0.75–0.77) | 0.76 (0.74–0.78) |
| Traditional risk score | 0.59 (0.58–0.60) | 0.60 (0.59–0.61) | 0.60 (0.58–0.62) | 0.63 (0.60–0.65) |
| Traditional risk score plus baseline age | 0.72 (0.71–0.72) | 0.71 (0.70–0.72) | 0.73 (0.71–0.74) | 0.75 (0.73–0.77) |
| Combined modela | 0.75 (0.74–0.75) | 0.72 (0.72–0.73) | 0.76 (0.75–0.78) | 0.77 (0.75–0.79) |
| P valueb | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 | < 0.001 |
| Follow-up yearsc | ||||
| ≤ Median | ||||
| Blood biomarker score | 0.70 (0.69–0.71) | 0.67 (0.66–0.68) | 0.72 (0.70–0.74) | 0.70 (0.67–0.72) |
| Blood biomarker score plus baseline age | 0.73 (0.72–0.73) | 0.71 (0.70–0.72) | 0.75 (0.73–0.76) | 0.75 (0.73–0.77) |
| Traditional risk score | 0.59 (0.58–0.59) | 0.60 (0.59–0.61) | 0.60 (0.58–0.62) | 0.62 (0.60–0.65) |
| Traditional risk score plus baseline age | 0.69 (0.69–0.70) | 0.70 (0.69–0.71) | 0.71 (0.70–0.73) | 0.74 (0.72–0.76) |
| Combined modela | 0.73 (0.72–0.73) | 0.71 (0.71–0.72) | 0.75 (0.73–0.76) | 0.75 (0.73–0.77) |
| > Median | ||||
| Blood biomarker score | 0.72 (0.69–0.74) | 0.66 (0.63–0.69) | 0.81 (0.73–0.88) | 0.70 (0.59–0.81) |
| Blood biomarker score plus baseline age | 0.75 (0.73–0.77) | 0.74 (0.72–0.78) | 0.80 (0.71–0.89) | 0.73 (0.63–0.84) |
| Traditional risk score | 0.60 (0.57–0.62) | 0.62 (0.58–0.65) | 0.58 (0.47–0.69) | 0.66 (0.53–0.79) |
| Traditional risk score plus baseline age | 0.73 (0.71–0.75) | 0.75 (0.72–0.78) | 0.70 (0.58–0.83) | 0.75 (0.67–0.83) |
| Combined modela | 0.75 (0.74–0.77) | 0.75 (0.72–0.78) | 0.80 (0.71–0.89) | 0.75 (0.67–0.84) |
CI confidence interval
aCombined model included baseline age, blood biomarker score, and traditional risk score
bThe P value from a likelihood ratio test comparing the C-indices between blood biomarker score plus baseline age and traditional risk score plus baseline age
cFor men, the median follow-up years is 11.9 in the training set and 13.1 in the validation set, while for women is 12.0 in the training set and 13.1 in the validation set