Fig. 6. Discrimination and reclassification by a model integrating polygenic and clinical risk for incident CAD.

a, The cumulative incidence of CAD over 10 years predicted by modeling GPS_Mult, AHA/ACC PCE 10-year risk estimate, and their interaction in the UK Biobank validation dataset binned according to the percentile of the GPS_Mult. Individuals were grouped by risk categories of the PCE (predicted 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease as ‘low’ (<5%), ‘borderline’ (5% to <7.5%), ‘intermediate’ (≥7.5% to <20%) and ‘high’ (≥20%)), and stratified by ancestry. b, C-statistics are based on 10-year follow-up events from Cox regression models of listed variables. PCE includes age and sex variables in its risk estimation. c, The improvement in the predictive performance of the addition of the GPS_Mult to the PCE was evaluated using continuous and categorized NRI, with a risk probability threshold of 7.5% and CIs (95%) obtained from 100-fold bootstrapping.