Table 2.
Estimated vaccine effectiveness against mild disease, hospitalisation and death for Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222, Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 and Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine regimens as a function of time since dose 2 or dose 3
| Vaccine | Days post dose 2 | Days post dose 3 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 | 180 | 30 | 60 | 90 | 120 | 150 | 180 | 365 | |
| Mild disease | |||||||||
| Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222 | 12 (11.5–12.4) | 6.1 (5.8–6.4) | 42.4 (35.8–48.9) | 29.9 (24.4–35.7) | 21.6 (17.2–26.4) | 16.5 (13–20.4) | 13.4 (10.4–16.8) | 11.6 (8.9–14.5) | 7.5 (5.4–9.8) |
| Moderna mRNA-1273 | 33.3 (32.1–34.1) | 19.3 (18.1–20) | 63.8 (62.6–64.3) | 50.5 (49.1–51.4) | 39.7 (38.2–40.7) | 32.1 (30.6–33.1) | 27.1 (25.7–28.1) | 23.9 (22.5–24.9) | 16.3 (13.7–17.9) |
| Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 | 24.9 (24.1–25.4) | 13.7 (12.9–14.1) | 57.1 (56.2–57.4) | 43.5 (42.5–44.1) | 33.2 (32.1–33.9) | 26.3 (25.3–27) | 22 (20.9–22.6) | 19.2 (18.1–19.9) | 12.9 (10.6–14.2) |
| Hospitalisation | |||||||||
| Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222 | 50.7 (48.9–52.1) | 32.9 (30.9–34.4) | 84.7 (80.7–88) | 76.2 (70.8–80.8) | 67.4 (61–73.1) | 59.8 (52.6–66.2) | 53.9 (46.6–60.6) | 49.7 (42.2–56.5) | 38 (29.8–45.3) |
| Moderna mRNA-1273 | 79 (77.5–80) | 64.2 (61.7–65.9) | 93 (92.4–93.3) | 88.5 (87.6–89) | 83.2 (81.9–84.1) | 78 (76.4–79.2) | 73.7 (71.7–75) | 70.3 (68–71.8) | 59.5 (53.9–62.7) |
| Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 | 71.4 (69.9–72.5) | 54.3 (52–55.9) | 90.9 (90.3–91.3) | 85.3 (84.3–85.9) | 78.9 (77.6–79.8) | 72.9 (71.2–74) | 67.9 (65.8–69.2) | 64.1 (61.7–65.7) | 52.6 (46.9–56) |
| Death | |||||||||
| Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222 | 50 (46–53.8) | 32.3 (28.8–35.9) | 84.4 (79.3–87.8) | 75.8 (68.9–80.7) | 66.8 (58.9–72.9) | 59.1 (50.8–66) | 53.3 (44.6–60.5) | 49 (40.3–56.3) | 37.4 (28.8–44.8) |
| Moderna mRNA-1273 | 78.6 (75.5–81.1) | 63.6 (59.2–67) | 92.8 (91.6–93.7) | 88.2 (86.4–89.6) | 82.8 (80.3–84.9) | 77.6 (74.4–80.1) | 73.2 (69.5–75.9) | 69.7 (65.7–72.7) | 58.9 (52.3–63.6) |
| Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 | 70.8 (67.3–73.9) | 53.7 (49.3–57.3) | 90.7 (89.1–91.8) | 85 (82.7–86.6) | 78.5 (75.5–80.8) | 72.4 (68.8–75.2) | 67.4 (63.4–70.5) | 63.5 (59.3–66.9) | 52 (45.4–56.6) |
Estimates are shown for the Omicron variant with the ancestral vaccines; estimates for the Delta variant are shown in Table S2. The values are shown for each vaccine for dose 2 or dose 3; as the dose 3 estimates do not depend on dose 2 values, the estimates are applicable to either homologous or heterologous dosing. Values shown are the posterior median and 95% credible intervals. The comparator group is those who did not receive any vaccine dose. Bold indicates projected vaccine effectiveness beyond the time period of the data to which the model was fitted.