Table 2.
Sub-distribution hazard ratios for predictor variables in the SCORE2-Diabetes risk models
| Men | Women | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main effect | Age interaction term | Main effect | Age interaction term | |
| SCORE2 variables | ||||
| Age (per 5 years) | 1.71 (1.66, 1.76) | – | 1.94 (1.88, 2.00) | – |
| Current smoking | 1.61 (1.53, 1.70) | 0.94 (0.91, 0.96) | 1.85 (1.73, 1.98) | 0.89 (0.87, 0.92) |
| Systolic blood pressure (per 20 mmHg) | 1.14 (1.11, 1.17) | 0.97 (0.96, 0.99) | 1.15 (1.12, 1.19) | 0.98 (0.97, 1.00) |
| Total cholesterol (per 1 mmol/L) | 1.12 (1.10, 1.14) | 0.98 (0.97, 0.99) | 1.12 (1.09, 1.15) | 0.98 (0.97, 0.99) |
| HDL-cholesterol (per 0.5 mmol/L) | 0.90 (0.86, 0.93) | 1.01 (0.99, 1.03) | 0.85 (0.82, 0.89) | 1.02 (1.00, 1.04) |
| History of diabetes mellitus | 1.91 (1.81, 2.01) | 0.91 (0.88, 0.93) | 2.25 (2.11, 2.40) | 0.88 (0.85, 0.91) |
| SCORE2-Diabetes additional variables | ||||
| Diabetes age at diagnosis (per 5-years) | 0.90 (0.89, 0.91) | 0.89 (0.88, 0.90) | – | |
| HbA1c (per SD mmol/mol) | 1.10 (1.09, 1.11) | 0.99 (0.98, 0.99) | 1.12 (1.11, 1.14) | 0.98 (0.98, 0.98) |
| ln eGFR (per SD ln(mL/min/1.73m2)) | 0.94 (0.93, 0.96) | 1.01 (1.01, 1.01) | 0.94 (0.92, 0.95) | 1.02 (1.01, 1.02) |
| ln eGFR2 (quadratic term) | 1.01 (1.00, 1.01) | – | 1.01 (1.00, 1.01) | – |
Sex-specific sub-distribution hazard ratios from Fine and Gray models predicting the risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events as derived for SCORE2 and adapted in individuals with diabetes from ERFC, UK Biobank, CPRD, SCID to include adjustments to SCORE2 effects and SCORE2-Diabetes additional variables. Age was centred at 60 years, systolic blood pressure at 120 mmHg, total cholesterol at 6 mmol/L, HDL-cholesterol at 1.3 mmol/L, age at diabetes onset at 50 years HbA1c at 31 mmol/mol and eGFR 90 mL/min/1.732 (i.e. ln-eGFR of 4.5). The median baseline survival at 10 years in the derivation cohorts was 0.9625 for men and 0.9795 for women. For HbA1c, 1 SD = 9.34 mmol/mol and for eGRF 1SD = 0.15 ln(mL/min/1.73 m2).
Values shown are the combination of original SCORE2 coefficients and additional coefficients which modify the associations for individuals with diabetes. See Supplementary data online, Supplementary methods for full sets of component effects for each risk predictor.