Table 3.

Granger causality tests between ERKs series and single survey questions.

ERK series	Evaluation of the economic situation in Italy	Evaluation of the household economic situation	Evaluation of the household budget	Current opportunities for Savings	Current opportunities of purchasing durable goods	Expectations on the economic situation of Italy	Unemployment expectations	Expectations on the household economic situation	Future possibilities for savings
Covid	0.52	7.16***	0.11	1.48	0.05	0.47	8.87***	6.41***	0.56
Lockdown	0.8	7.31***	0.19	1.53	0.01	0.07	5.51***	5.07***	0.44
Unemployment	0.75	6.57***	0.58	2.53	4.93**	3.08*	0.99	2.88*	2.07
Quantitative easing	0.9	8.14***	0.12	1.74	1.04	2.81*	0.23	0.4	0.91
Economic crisis	0.53	6.62***	0.13	5.15***	0.02	0.48	0.19	0.09	2.41
Interest rate	4.21**	6.89***	0.14	3.63**	2.44	0.82	0.54	0.4	6.2**
Monetary politics	4.89***	8.84***	0.3	2.02	1.78	2.58	0.7	0.33	1.52
European community	1.05	6.57***	0.17	4.52***	2.89*	1.08	0.39	0.26	1.02
Financial markets	1.02	7.97***	0.14	1.68	3.15*	0.67	0.76	0.07	0.28
EU	2.42	5.93***	4.21**	4.11**	1.94	0.13	0.37	0.14	10.01***
Unions	1.41	6.96***	5.88**	1.59	0.19	0.56	0.35	0.76	0.94
Strikes	1.21	7.24***	0.78	1.56	0.71	0.08	0.09	0.57	0.29
Deficit	0.85	6.2***	0.58	2.15	0.55	0.08	2.17	0.35	0.94
Taxation	1.93	5.55***	0.29	2.96*	0.14	1.71	0.07	0.07	0.37
Btp-bot	3.36*	5.94***	0.13	1.48	5.37**	1.39	2.68	0.32	1.86
Prices	2.55	5.9***	1.47	3.35**	6.32**	0.67	1.4	0.07	0.3
Italian stock exchange	3.51*	7.84***	0.26	3.5*	2.3	0.92	0.74	0.41	2.4
Bank of Italy	0.54	7.09***	0.3	1.63	2.44	1.04	0.05	1.37	1.38
smartworking	2.39	6.89***	1.82	1.69	0.15	0.21	2.41	0.11	0.36
Junkbond	0.71	7.2***	0.52	1.72	3.08*	3.59*	0.26	0.88	1.27
House	0.61	7.11***	0.73	1.59	0.29	3.21**	0.06	0.13	0.21
Purchase	2.33	7.2***	0.27	1.54	3.71*	2.26	0.24	1.41	8.04***
Rent	3.18**	7.03***	0.12	1.7	0.24	0.76	0.28	0.11	0.99
Car	7.59***	6.99***	2.16	3.46*	0.02	0.91	0.96	0.63	1.08
Incomes	2.63	5.58***	0.4	2.01	3.06*	0.53	0.19	0.95	0.73
Employee loans	0.59	7.04***	0.34	1.94	2.94*	2.94*	0.11	0.88	1.58
Loan	2.82*	5.7***	1.01	1.62	1.82	0.59	0.27	0.25	3.73*
Family	5.47**	6.46***	3.06*	1.87	1.58	0.74	2.57	2.22	6.56**
Trust	4.26**	7.4***	0.65	2.56	1.76	3.06*	3.96**	0.45	0.47
Discomfort	0.76	7.35***	0.22	3.8*	2.1	2.27	0.11	0.5	1.14
Job	1.13	7.61***	0.21	2.58	0.02	0.08	0.58	0.1	1.42
PC	3.02*	6.94***	4.03**	1.48	0.06	0.92	1.39	0.14	1.65
Politics	1.58	8.6***	1.14	2.78*	2.31	0.12	0.05	0.55	4.81**
Public sector	2.58	6.9***	0.78	1.49	7.1***	6.17**	0.74	0.46	1.99
Economy	0.58	8.47***	0.28	1.81	0.62	0.22	0.11	0.17	2.34
Education/degree	0.59	5.95***	0.33	5.92***	4.74**	6.49***	2.35	2.29	1.14
Consumers	0.62	5.95***	1.56	1.53	1.48	1.36	0.25	0.75	0.2
Needs	2.08	6.41***	0.5	1.48	2.18	2.52	0.98	0.15	0.94
Global	0.53	5.72***	0.47	3.73*	3.01*	3.59*	0.55	0.71	0.94
Institutions	0.81	6.92***	0.42	1.51	3.76*	2.1	0.34	0.37	0.89
Retirement pension	0.61	5.78***	0.26	5.58***	0.33	0.14	0.15	0.38	0.18
Saving	0.54	5.95***	0.32	1.57	0.5	0.56	1.37	0.62	1.33
Vacation	3.34*	5.59***	2.63	1.51	0.18	0.57	0.31	3.23*	4.17**
Competition	0.89	7.22***	1.02	4.56**	2.28	1.78	1.69	1.8	4.4**
Spread	2.32	6.3***	0.11	1.77	0.29	2.78*	6.08**	0.49	0.23
Rating	3.32**	6.02***	0.27	5.08***	0.01	1.4	4.46**	1.24	0.22
Euro-group	0.52	5.63***	0.19	1.48	1.73	2.2	0.74	1.23	0.37
Coronabond	0.68	6.96***	0.46	1.67	3.51*	5.02**	0.34	1.24	1.8
Eurobond	0.66	6.63***	0.55	1.63	3.06*	5.01**	0.37	1.4	1.61
Sure	0.69	6.57***	1.68	1.52	1.53	7.14***	0.12	1.44	0.91
European investment bank	0.53	7.19***	1.1	2.71	1.73	2.87*	0.78	2.7	0.53
Oil	0.67	5.9***	3.16*	1.62	1.78	0.5	1.23	0.36	0.7
Gold	4.27**	5.85***	2.74*	3.69*	6.78**	4.36**	2.22	0.53	0.19
Troika	1.39	6.99***	1.35	1.54	4.64**	8.02***	2	2.51	1.03
Euro	0.64	6.53***	0.42	3.07*	0.12	0.83	0.23	0.09	0.29
National retirement system/INPS	0.58	6.77***	0.6	1.84	2.69	2.13	0.06	0.49	5.46**
GDP	0.79	6.78***	0.12	1.77	0.56	0.31	0.06	0.08	0.53
Confindustria (National Industrial Association)	0.96	5.64***	1.01	3.23*	0.28	1.07	0.07	0.27	0.19
Sentiment	0.91	6.15***	0.42	1.97	0.89	1.04	0.331	0.68	0.42

 ∗ p < .10.

 ∗ ∗ p < .05.

 ∗  ∗  ∗ p < .01.