Table 1.
Summary of the developed future scenarios, the SBL-Agri-SSPs. A more detailed description of the scenarios is given in Online Resource 2
| Key characteristics | Reference scenario (Ref) | SBL-Agri-SSP1 (Regional agriculture on the organic sustainable path) |
SBL-Agri-SSP2 (Regional agriculture on the BAU scenario path) |
SBL-Agri-SSP5 (Regional agriculture on the liberalised path) |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temporal scale | 2020 | 2050 | 2050 | 2050 | ||||
| Socioeconomic condition | Current observation | Eur-Agri-SSP1 | Eur-Agri-SSP2 | Eur-Agri-SSP5 | ||||
| Climate scenario | - | RCP 4.5 | RCP 4.5 | RCP 8.5 | ||||
| Farm structure | Current status (avg. farm size 24 ha) | More smaller farms with smaller fields (avg. 23 ha) | Lower number of farms (avg. 27 ha) | Almost only large-scale farms with livestock (avg. 60 ha) | ||||
| Farm types (weight) |
Small dairy farm Large dairy farm Suckler farm Orchard farm Small farm |
(12 %) (30 %) (32 %) (14 %) (12 %) |
Small dairy farm Large dairy farm Suckler farm Orchard farm Small farm |
(11 %) (16 %) (35 %) (25 %) (13 %) |
Small dairy farm Large dairy farm Suckler farm Orchard farm Small farm |
(10 %) (28 %) (37 %) (14 %) (11 %) |
Large dairy farm Suckler farm Orchard farm |
(55 %) (39 %) (6 %) |
| Crop production | · Both for fodder production and cereals for human consumption |
· No synthetic chemical l fertilisers/plant protection products · Only clover allowed for fodder production |
· Same as the reference |
· Intensive use of mechanisation for larger field size · Eased crop rotation system |
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| New crops | - |
·Sunflower, soy, and grain maize (cash crops) ·Clover-grass (fodder) |
·Sunflower and grain maize (cash crops) ·Soy (fodder) |
·Sunflower and grain maize (cash crops) ·Soy (fodder) |
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| Grassland | · Primarily extensive grass production (meadow/pasture) |
· Intensive management still possible · But only manure allowed |
· Same as the reference |
· No pasture · Used exclusively for hay production |
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| Orchards |
· Orchards combined with extensive grass production · Non-commercial fruit production |
· Commercial fruit production sold to regional markets | · Same system as the reference | · Same system as the reference but without subsidies | ||||
|
Livestock production & Fodder system |
· Primarily free-range · Low livestock intensity ·Grass-based fodder system * except for large dairy farms |
· Smaller scale · Fed exclusively roughage (low milk performance) |
· Higher livestock intensity with mechanisation . Same fodder systems as the reference |
· Kept in large cattle barns with high livestock intensity · No grazing and no restriction for feed (high milk performance) |
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| Biodiversity measures | · 7% of EFAs on farmland |
· 15% of EFAs on farmland · 10% of EFAs on arable land |
· 10% of EFAs on farmland · 4% of EFAs on arable land |
· No regulation | ||||
EFA ecological focused area
*At least 75% of feed must be roughage and the proportion of concentrates (cereals) must be less than 10%