Table 5.
Comparisons of PPV, NPV, sensitivity and specificity between baseline and prediction model.
| Model | NDD (%) | ADHD (%) | ASD (%) | ID (%) | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPV | NPV | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | Sensitivity | Specificity | |
| Baseline a | 18% | 98% | 46% | 92% | 10% | 98% | 38% | 91% | 7% | 99% | 59% | 91% | 6% | 100% | 66% | 91% |
| M8 | 21% | 98% | 52% | 92% | 13% | 99% | 50% | 92% | 8% | 99% | 62% | 91% | 7% | 100% | 68% | 91% |
| M8-half b | 31% | 98% | 38% | 97% | 19% | 98% | 36% | 96% | 14% | 99% | 52% | 96% | 12% | 100% | 57% | 96% |
| M8-double c | 13% | 98% | 66% | 83% | 9% | 99% | 65% | 82% | 5% | 100% | 72% | 82% | 4% | 100% | 77% | 82% |
NDD: neurodevelopmental disabilities; ADHD: attention deficit hyperactivity disorder; ASD: autism spectrum disorder; ID: intellectual disability; PPV: positive predictive value; NPV: negative predictive value.
a
The baseline statistics for each disorder group were derived by comparing actual referrals with observed.
b
Threshold value set such that in comparison with the baseline model, only half the number of people would be referred.
c
Threshold value set such that in comparison with the baseline model, twice the number of people would be referred.