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. 2023 Jul 24;183(9):916–923. doi: 10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.1154

Figure 4. Excess Death Rates and Vaccination Rates in Florida and Ohio During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Figure 4.

The diamonds are binned means; counties with similar vaccination rates were binned to form 8 equally sized bins. The curves were fit to the underlying data using locally estimated scatterplot smoothing. In the pre–COVID-19 period (before April 2020), excess death rates for both Republican and Democratic voters hover around 0. During the beginning pandemic but before open vaccine eligibility (April 2020 to March 2021), the association between excess death rates and county-level vaccination rates were generally negative and nearly identical for Republican and Democratic voters. However, in the period after open vaccine eligibility (April 2021 to December 2021), there was a clear difference between Republican and Democratic voters, with higher excess death rates for Republicans concentrated in counties with lower overall vaccination rates and minimal differences in counties with the highest vaccination rates.