Table 2.
Impact of the treatment program scenarios on HCV chronic infection prevalence in 19 countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
| Countries | HCV chronic infection prevalence in 2022 (%) | HCV chronic infection prevalence by 2030 (%) | HCV chronic infection prevalence reduction strictly attributed to the treatment program scenarios by 2030 (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No-treatment intervention scenario | Target 80% incidence reduction scenario* | Target incidence rate < 1 per 100,000 person-years scenario | Target 80% incidence reduction scenario* | Target incidence rate < 1 per 100,000 person-years scenario | ||
| Afghanistan | 0.41 (0.26–0.67) | 0.36 (0.21–0.62) | 0.08 (0.05–0.11) | 0.01 (0.01–0.01) | 78.6 (75.7–81.3) | 97.6 (95.3–98.8) |
| Algeria | 0.10 (0.02–0.49) | 0.08 (0.01–0.42) | 0.03 (0.00–0.11) | 0.01 (0.00–0.01) | 67.5 (61.2–73.3) | 86.4 (61.2–97.8) |
| Iran | 0.15 (0.08–0.40) | 0.12 (0.06–0.31) | 0.05 (0.03–0.13) | 0.03 (0.03–0.03) | 54.5 (52.6–57.2) | 74.5 (52.6–91.2) |
| Iraq | 0.24 (0.10–0.63) | 0.24 (0.08–0.52) | 0.04 (0.02–0.06) | 0.04 (0.02–0.04) | 82.6 (81.0–88.5) | 84.3 (81.0–97.8) |
| Jordan | 0.16 (0.06–0.50) | 0.14 (0.05–0.49) | 0.02 (0.01–0.06) | 0.02 (0.01–0.02) | 83.4 (79.7–87.6) | 83.8 (79.7–96.9) |
| Kuwait | 0.84 (0.19–2.68) | 0.63 (0.14–2.08) | 0.32 (0.08–0.90) | 0.02 (0.02–0.02) | 48.2 (42.5–56.7) | 97.0 (84.0–99.3) |
| Lebanon | 0.11 (0.03–0.48) | 0.06 (0.02–0.29) | 0.03 (0.01–0.09) | 0.02 (0.01–0.02) | 53.9 (40.7–68.4) | 70.2 (40.7–96.1) |
| Libya | 0.94 (0.61–1.62) | 0.89 (0.58–1.54) | 0.23 (0.15–0.39) | 0.05 (0.05–0.05) | 74.0 (73.7–74.3) | 94.6 (91.5–97.0) |
| Morocco | 0.40 (0.22–0.70) | 0.29 (0.16–0.52) | 0.14 (0.08–0.24) | 0.02 (0.02–0.02) | 52.5 (50.8–54.6) | 92.6 (86.4–95.7) |
| Oman | 0.34 (0.18–0.63) | 0.23 (0.12–0.45) | 0.07 (0.04–0.13) | 0.01 (0.01–0.01) | 68.9 (66.1–71.8) | 97.6 (95.1–98.8) |
| Palestine | 0.31 (0.19–0.47) | 0.23 (0.14–0.36) | 0.06 (0.04–0.09) | 0.06 (0.04–0.06) | 74.3 (73.0–75.3) | 74.3 (73.0–84.2) |
| Qatar | 0.37 (0.37–0.44) | 0.34 (0.34–0.41) | 0.08 (0.07–0.09) | 0.02 (0.02–0.02) | 78.1 (78.1–78.5) | 95.1 (95.1–95.9) |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.40 (0.23–0.71) | 0.29 (0.17–0.52) | 0.15 (0.09–0.26) | 0.03 (0.03–0.03) | 48.1 (47.1–49.5) | 91.0 (83.8–95.2) |
| Somalia | 0.24 (0.08–0.66) | 0.19 (0.05–0.56) | 0.04 (0.01–0.08) | 0.01 (0.01–0.01) | 80.9 (73.9–86.1) | 92.0 (73.9–98.0) |
| Sudan | 0.43 (0.14–1.13) | 0.35 (0.11–0.98) | 0.08 (0.03–0.19) | 0.02 (0.02–0.02) | 77.8 (73.6–80.8) | 93.2 (76.3–98.2) |
| Syria | 0.29 (0.18–0.49) | 0.24 (0.15–0.41) | 0.06 (0.04–0.10) | 0.06 (0.04–0.06) | 74.8 (73.6–76.7) | 74.8 (73.6–85.3) |
| Tunisia | 0.30 (0.14–0.74) | 0.23 (0.11–0.58) | 0.09 (0.04–0.22) | 0.09 (0.04–0.09) | 61.0 (60.2–63.0) | 61.2 (60.2–86.3) |
| United Arab Emirates | 0.98 (0.52–1.87) | 0.69 (0.36–1.39) | 0.22 (0.12–0.44) | 0.03 (0.03–0.03) | 68.1 (66.5–71.5) | 96.1 (92.6–98.2) |
| Yemen | 0.60 (0.29–1.15) | 0.39 (0.18–0.77) | 0.18 (0.09–0.31) | 0.02 (0.02–0.02) | 54.8 (49.9–60.4) | 95.8 (90.2–98.1) |
*Incidence reduction was defined as the relative difference between incidence at a given time point and incidence in 2010. The year 2010 was chosen as a reference year for the target-80%-incidence-reduction scenario, as suggested earlier by the WHO (14, 44), and for consistency with the approach for Egypt and Pakistan (16, 17).