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. 2023 May 15;32(8):1003–1010. doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-22-1275

Table 1.

Notable studies that demonstrate a change in late-stage incidence preceding mortality reduction.

Cancer type Intervention, additional studies Relationship between reduction in late-stage incidence and mortality
Breast

  • Mammography:

  • Meta-analysis Tabar et al. (33)

  • Meta-analysis Autier et al. (47)

 Both studies demonstrate that late-stage reduction is correlated with mortality reduction but leads to underestimation of the mortality effect.
Bowel

  • FOBT: Nottingham (47)

  • Flexible sigmoidoscopy:

  • PLCO (47)

  • UK flexible sigmoidoscopy trial (47)

 FOBT: There was a reduction in total incidence, a nonsignificant reduction in late-stage incidence but a larger and statistically significant reduction in mortality from colorectal cancer.
Flexible sigmoidoscopy: Accurate prediction of mortality based on incidence reduction was demonstrated
Lung

  • LDCT:

  • NELSON (47)

 Reduced mortality was preceded by stage shift

Abbreviation: FOBT, fecal occult blood test.