TABLE 3.
Estimated Patients on DTG/3TC and Cost Savings
| Market share scenarios | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of treatment experienced patients on DTG/3TC | |||||
| Scenario 1 | 24,000 | 24,702 | 25,405 | 26,107 | 26,810 |
| Scenario 2 | 48,000 | 49,405 | 50,810 | 52,214 | 53,619 |
| Scenario 3 | 72,000 | 74,107 | 76,214 | 78,322 | 80,429 |
| Number of treatment naive patients on DTG/3TC | |||||
| Scenario 1 | 702 | 702 | 702 | 702 | 702 |
| Scenario 2 | 1,405 | 1405 | 1,405 | 1,405 | 1,405 |
| Scenario 3 | 2,107 | 2,107 | 2,107 | 2,107 | 2,107 |
| Annual cost savings with the introduction of DTG/3TC ($ millions) | |||||
| Scenario 1 | 206 | 216 | 224 | 232 | 240 |
| Scenario 2 | 412 | 431 | 447 | 463 | 479 |
| Scenario 3 | 618 | 647 | 671 | 695 | 719 |
| Cumulative cost savings with the introduction of DTG/3TC ($ millions) | |||||
| Scenario 1 | 206 | 422 | 645 | 877 | 1116 |
| Scenario 2 | 412 | 843 | 1,290 | 1,753 | 2,233 |
| Scenario 3 | 618 | 1,265 | 1,935 | 2,630 | 3,349 |
Scenario 1: DTG/3TC market share of 5% in treatment naive and 10% in treatment experienced;
Scenario 2: DTG/3TC market share of 10% in treatment naive and 20% in treatment experienced;
Scenario 3: DTG/3TC market share of 15% in treatment naive and 30% in treatment experienced
3TC = lamivudine; DTG = dolutegravir.