Figure 2.

Likely GBS carriage trajectories for Study B

For ease of visualization, 500 of the 4,000 posterior samples are presented. Each panel represents both the sequence of microbiological results, as red squares and title, and the estimated likely sequences of hidden states, i.e., carrier status (blue lines). Each posterior sample is represented by a blue line; uniformly distributed random values were added to y axis coordinates of individual trajectories to avoid superposition of lines. Figure S4 presents estimated likely trajectories from a model that uses a different prior assumption for assay sensitivity. As a discrete-time model was used, the lines are not intended to represent states between visits; rather they are used to indicate that the states in the same line were estimated using the same posterior sample, and thus jointly correspond to a trajectory.