Table 2.
Scenario A: estimated increase in CRC cases and deaths over 2020–2050 by country, for countries with robust data on the decrease in screening participation in 2020.
| Relative reduction in primary screening in 2020 vs 2019 | Reduction in screening volume in 2020 vs expected | No catch-up (Scenario A.1) |
Full catch-up in 2021 (Scenario A.2) |
Reduction in additional burden attributable to catch-up screening |
Excess all-cause mortality per 100,000, 202,025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Additional cases, 2020–2050 | Additional deaths, 2020–2050 | Additional cases, 2020–2050 | Additional deaths, 2020–2050 | Cases, 2020–2050 | Deaths, 2020–2050 | ||||
| Australia | 6.33%21 | 111,410 | 221 (109, 297) | 101 (65, 124) | 47 (4, 150) | 15 (−13, 57) | 78.70% | 85.10% | −30 |
| Belgium | 18.08%87,a | 77,262 | 167 (93, 232) | 81 (57, 96) | 36 (3, 115) | 12 (−11, 46) | 78.40% | 85.20% | 146 |
| Canada | 36.22%88,36,b | 1,276,680 | 2,174 (1,002, 3,037) | 1,154 (720, 1,449) | 478 (57, 1,544) | 190 (−135, 694) | 78.00% | 83.50% | 45 |
| Czechia | 16.86%36, 88 | 106,835 | 213 (109, 278) | 132 (89, 160) | 45 (−3, 178) | 20 (−6, 88) | 78.90% | 84.80% | 126 |
| Denmark | 5.06%89,c | 22,991 | 51 (25, 71) | 26 (17, 31) | 11 (1, 35) | 4 (−2, 14) | 78.40% | 84.60% | 8 |
| Italy | 36.58%36, 88 | 878,458 | 1,907 (1,192, 2,475) | 1,102 (837, 1,396) | 365 (−73, 1,507) | 118 (−99, 708) | 80.90% | 89.30% | 166 |
| Japan | 1.27%36, 88 | 79,876 | 114 (67, 138) | 55 (47, 71) | 114 (67, 138) | 55 (47, 71) | −c | −c | −24 |
| Netherlands | 15.36%90 | 250,174 | 553 (243, 813) | 298 (180, 363) | 135 (−7, 542) | 58 (−8, 243) | 75.60% | 80.50% | 85 |
| Singapore | 22.22%36, 88 | 15,131 | 17 (9, 22) | 12 (9, 18) | 17 (9, 22) | 12 (9, 18) | −c | −c | −1 |
| Spain | 40.51%76,77,36,d | 328,217 | 896 (655, 1,197) | 479 (403, 637) | 158 (−41, 676) | 25 (−101, 297) | 82.40% | 94.80% | 155 |
All results are relative to the comparator (status quo participation rates in 2020). Results in brackets are the range of model estimates.
a
Based on data from Flanders and Brussels regions.
b
Based on data for Ontario.
c
Catch-up screening was not simulated for annual programs, as individuals would be invited to screening in 2021 regardless.
d
Based on data from Barcelona, Basque, Valencia, and Catalonia regions.