Table 3.
Global outcomes for organised screening programs, for observed and imputed COVID-related screening decreases (Table 2 and Supplementary Table S6), and relative 10%, 25%, and 50% screening decreases in 2020.
| Scenario A: Observed and imputed COVID-related screening decrease in 2020 | Scenario B: 25% relative screening decrease in 2020 | Scenario C: 10% relative screening decrease in 2020 | Scenario D: 50% relative screening decrease in 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Screens missed, 2020 | 7,432,858 | 9,829,213 | 3,931,685 | 19,658,427 | |
| No catch-up | Additional cases, 2020–2050 | 13,600 (7,143, 17,733 | 16,848 (8,841, 21,790) | 6,739 (3,536, 8,716) | 33,696 (17,683, 43,581) |
| Additional deaths, 2020–2050 | 7,989 (5,422, 9,857) | 9,639 (6,668, 12,175) | 3,855 (2,667, 4,870) | 19,279 (13,336, 24,351) | |
| Full catch-up | Additional cases, 2020–2050 | 2,883 (566, 8,448) | 5,578 (2,128, 11,739) | 2,231 (851, 4,695) | 11,157 (4,256, 23,478) |
| Additional deaths, 2020–2050 | 1,178 (−482, 4,056) | 2,478 (539, 5,232) | 991 (215, 2,092) | 4,956 (1,078, 10,464) | |
All results are relative to the comparator (status quo participation rates in 2020). Results in brackets are the range of model estimates.