Table 4.
Total additional CRC cases and deaths over 2020–2050, per 100,000 screens missed in 2020 (faecal or colonoscopy).
| Screening category | No catch-up |
Full catch-up |
Reduction in additional burden attributable to catch-up screening |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Additional CRC cases per 100,000 screens missed, 2020–2050 | Additional CRC deaths per 100,000 screens missed, 2020–2050 | Additional CRC cases per 100,000 screens missed, 2020–2050 | Additional CRC deaths per 100,000 screens missed, 2020–2050 | CRC cases | CRC deaths | |
| SC 1 (annual faecal screening, age 50–74) | 53 (23, 77) | 25 (11, 38) | −a | – | – | – |
| SC 2 (biennial faecal screening, age 50–69) | 101 (43, 180) | 61 (35, 117) | 23 (−5, 86) | 10 (−9, 38) | 77.2% | 83.6% |
| SC 3 (biennial faecal screening, age 50–74) | 92 (35, 145) | 53 (34, 79) | 25 (4, 67) | 10 (−4, 31) | 72.8% | 81.1% |
| SC 4 (biennial faecal screening, age 60–69) | 131 (65, 204) | 85 (59, 127) | 19 (7, 32) | 5 (−9, 9) | 85.5% | 94.1% |
| SC 5 (colonoscopy screening at age 50, 60 and 70) | 1,056 (761, 1,634) | 455 (284, 689) | 124 (−48, 425) | 43 (−15, 137) | 88.3% | 90.5% |
All results are relative to the comparator (status quo participation rates in 2020). Results in brackets are the range of model estimates.
a
Catch-up screening was not simulated for annual programs, as individuals would be invited to screening in 2021 regardless.