TABLE 2.
Predicted Mean Expenditures and Average Marginal Effect of Obesity on Total Medical Expenditure in the United States and Separately for the Top 4 Most Populous States, by Class of Obesity
| Normal Weight | Obesity | Class 1 Obesity | Class 2 Obesity | Class 3 Obesity | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States – National-level data | |||||
| 2001-2016 (n = 63,508) | |||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 2,504.48 (2,280.31, 2,728.66) | 5,009.82 (4,595.12, 5,424.51) | 4,217.92 (4,008.82, 4,427.03) | 5,509.81 (4,936.03, 6,083.59) | 8,354.17 (6,704.00, 10,004.35) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 2,505.34 (1,908.74, 3,101.94) | 1,713.44 (1,342.54, 2,084.34) | 3,005.32 (2,245.13, 3,765.52) | 5,849.69 (4,003.83, 7,695.55) |
| 2001-2005 (n = 21,024) | |||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 2,255.74 (2,071.10, 2,440.39) | 4,531.00 (4,094.69, 4,967.30) | 3,808.16 (3,569.71, 4,046.62) | 4,974.33 (4,387.21, 5,561.44) | 7,650.30 (5,984.03, 9,316.57) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 2,275.25 (1,701.48, 2,849.03) | 1,552.42 (1,192.03, 1,912.81) | 2,718.58 (1,989.35, 3,447.81) | 5,394.56 (3,576.76, 7,212.36) |
| 2006-2010 (n = 19,199) | |||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 2,502.57 (2,260.07, 2,745.06) | 5,060.36 (4,592.16, 5,528.56) | 4,254.02 (3,993.87, 4,514.17) | 5,567.96 (4,938.66, 6,197.26) | 8,459.89 (6,698.46, 10,221.31) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 2,557.8 (1,926.81, 3,188.79) | 1,751.45 (1,359.45, 2,143.45) | 3,065.39 (2,266.06, 3,864.73) | 5,957.32 (4,009.28, 7,905.36) |
| 2011-2016 (n = 23,285) | |||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 2,695.77 (2,398.60, 2,992.94) | 5,477.37 (4,990.48, 5,964.25) | 4,577.35 (4,294.42, 4,860.28) | 5,972.43 (5,337.13, 6,607.72) | 9,007.59 (7,267.07, 10,748.11) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 2,781.60 (2,119.78, 3,443.42) | 1,881.58 (1,479.19, 2,283.97) | 3,276.66 (2,454.54, 4,098.77) | 6,311.82 (4,353.96, 8,269.69) |
| State-level data | |||||
| California (n =10,870) | |||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 1,501.90 (1,179.87, 1,823.94) | 5,811.89 (4,007.17, 7,616.62) | 4,363.15 (3,440.75, 5,285.56) | 7,507.58 (4,363.59, 10,651.57) | 17,647.64 (4,224.99, 31,070.29) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 4,309.99 (2,224.53, 6,395.45) | 2,861.25 (1,664.35, 4,058.15) | 6,005.68 (2,574.83, 9,436.52) | 16,145.74 (2,429.4, 29,862.07) |
| Texas (n = 7,209) | |||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 1,792.51 (1,387.38, 2,197.63) | 3,673.19 (2,834.17, 4,512.21) | 3,044.79 (2,668.3, 3,421.27) | 4,012.64 (2,899.45, 5,125.83) | 6,320.62 (2,865.65, 9,775.59) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 1,880.68 (692.03, 3,069.34) | 1,252.28 (551.52, 1,953.04) | 2,220.13 (751.30, 3,688.97) | 4,528.11 (709.09, 8,347.13) |
| New York (n = 3,394) | |||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 2,976.34 (2,352.00, 3,600.69) | 4,952.39 (3,622.41, 6,282.38) | 4,371.52 (3,702.77, 5,040.27) | 5,354.75 (3,536.89, 7,172.61) | 7,306.46 (2,335.75, 12,277.17) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 1,976.05 (88.20, 3,863.89) | 1,395.18 (191.94, 2,598.42) | 2,378.40 (–4.55, 4,761.36) | 4,330.12 (–1,209.10, 9,869.33) |
| Florida (n = 3,343) | |||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 3,008.96 (2,374.86, 3,643.05) | 3,732.52 (2,830.77, 4,634.26) | 3,542.91 (3,008.45, 4,077.37) | 3,841.06 (2,706.83, 4,975.29) | 4,399.49 (1,946.07, 6,852.92) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 723.56 (–706.06, 2,153.18) | 533.95 (–493.91, 1,561.82) | 832.10 (–839.37, 2,503.58) | 1,390.54 (–1,617.05, 4,398.13) |
Note: Data are from the 2001-2016 MEPS. Average marginal effect estimates of obesity are from in instrumental variable 2-part model and expenditure are expressed in 2017 USD. The 90% CIs in parentheses are adjusted for the complex design of the MEPS. Classes of obesity are defined as follows: class 1 (BMI 30 - < 35 kg/m2), class 2 (BMI 35 - <40 kg/m2), class 3 (BMI ≥ 40 kg/m2).
BMI = body mass index; MEPS = Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys; USD = United States dollar.