TABLE 3.
Predicted Mean Expenditures and Average Marginal Effect of Obesity on Medical Expenditure in the United States and Separately for the Top 4 Most Populous States, by Payer
| Total Medical Expenditures | Private Payments | Public Payments | Out-of-Pocket Payments | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normal Weight | Obesity | Normal Weight | Obesity | Normal Weight | Obesity | Normal Weight | Obesity | |
| United States – National-level data | ||||||||
| 2001-2016 (n = 63,508) | ||||||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 2,504.48 (2,280.31, 2,728.66) | 5,009.82 (4,595.12, 5,424.51) | 2,076.09 (1,841.67, 2,310.50) | 4,134.55 (3,670.67, 4,598.44) | 1,652.21 (1,211.27, 2,093.15) | 4,529.06 (3,696.12, 5,361.99) | 508.28 (466.79, 549.77) | 737.64 (663.08, 812.19) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 2,505.34 (1,908.74, 3,101.94) | – | 2,058.46 (1,402.34, 2,714.59) | – | 2,876.85 (1,666.59, 4,087.1) | – | 229.36 (118.67, 340.05) |
| 2001-2005 (n = 21,024) | ||||||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 2,255.74 (2,071.10, 2,440.39) | 4,531.00 (4,094.69, 4,967.30) | 1,834.42 (1,645.17, 2,023.67) | 3,610.15 (3,158.46, 4,061.84) | 1,550.82 (1,154.98, 1,946.65) | 4,295.01 (3,382.76, 5,207.26) | 544.20 (504.20, 584.21) | 824.39 (722.89, 925.9) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 2,275.25 (1,701.48, 2,849.03) | – | 1,775.73 (1,176.68, 2,374.77) | – | 2,744.19 (1,532.87, 3,955.51) | – | 280.19 (145.82, 414.56) |
| 2006-2010 (n = 19,199) | ||||||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 2,502.57 (2,260.07, 2,745.06) | 5,060.36 (4,592.16, 5,528.56) | 2,134.83 (1,884.60, 2,385.07) | 4,186.31 (3,676.41, 4,696.22) | 1,578.74 (1,062.54, 2,094.93) | 4,435.43 (3,554.49, 5,316.38) | 512.89 (464.74, 561.04) | 784.38 (692.57, 876.2) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 2,557.8 (1,926.81, 3,188.79) | – | 2,051.48 (1,368.18, 2,734.78) | – | 2,856.69 (1,676.72, 4,036.67) | – | 271.49 (145.21, 397.77) |
| 2011-2016 (n = 23,285) | ||||||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 2,695.77 (2,398.60, 2,992.94) | 5,477.37 (4,990.48, 5,964.25) | 2,260.32 (1,945.67, 2,574.96) | 5,477.37 (4,990.48, 5,964.25) | 1,777.76 (1,314.41, 2,241.11) | 4,861.83 (3,852.43, 5,871.23) | 446.55 (398.47, 494.63) | 689.59 (617.33, 761.86) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 2,781.60 (2,119.78, 3,443.42) | – | 2,781.6 (2,119.78, 3,443.42) | – | 3,084.07 (1,727.64, 4,440.51) | – | 243.04 (135.63, 350.45) |
| State-level data | ||||||||
| California (n = 10,870) | ||||||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 1,501.90 (1,179.87, 1,823.94) | 5,811.89 (4,007.17, 7,616.62) | 1,728.92 (1,294.10, 2,163.75) | 3,264.40 (2,028.62, 4,500.19) | 348.03 (141.46, 554.61) | 8,149.46 (–3327.15, 12,971.78) | 347.67 (257.77, 437.56) | 790.03 (400.09, 1,179.97) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 4,309.99 (2,224.53, 6,395.45) | – | 1,535.48 (–88.86, 3,159.83) | – | 7,801.43 (2,806.71, 12,796.15) | – | 442.37 (–31.76, 916.49) |
| Texas (n = 7,209) | ||||||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 1,792.51 (1,387.38, 2,197.63) | 3,673.19 (2,834.17, 4,512.21) | 1,336.09 (895.84, 1,776.34) | 4,298.94 (2,925.64, 5,672.24) | 4,493.00 (–5,447.05, 14,433.06) | 4451.40 (57.94, 8,844.86) | 566.74 (455.77, 677.7) | 540.21 (434.11, 646.30) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 1,880.68 (692.03, 3,069.34) | – | 2,962.85 (1,201.39, 4,724.30) | – | –41.60 (–10,446.18, 10,362.98) | – | –26.53 (–221.11, 168.04) |
| New York (n = 3,394) | ||||||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 2,976.34 (2,352.00, 3,600.69) | 4,952.39 (3,622.41, 6,282.38) | 3,069.23 (2,328.15, 3,810.32) | 3,761.1 (2,249.61, 5,272.59) | 1,232.95 (572.20, 1,893.71) | 5,029.49 (2,827.82, 7,231.16) | 423.51 (327.27, 519.74) | 711.6 (395.38, 1,027.82) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 1,976.05 (88.20, 3,863.89) | – | 691.87 (–1,471.57, 2,855.31) | – | 3,796.54 (1,066.29, 6,526.78) | – | 288.09 (–109.00, 685.19) |
| Florida (n = 3,343) | ||||||||
| Predicted mean expenditures | 3,008.96 (2,374.86, 3,643.05) | 3,732.52 (2,830.77, 4,634.26) | 1,982.53 (1,287.78, 2,677.29) | 3,810.34 (2,424.47, 5,196.21) | 9,723.55 (–5,560.00, 25,007.10) | 1,012.98 (65.59, 1,960.36) | 561.53 (470.28, 652.78) | 744.13 (518.88, 969.38) |
| Average marginal effect | – | 723.56 (–706.06, 2,153.18) | – | 1,827.81 (–129.41, 3,785.02) | – | –8,710.57 (–24,621.65, 7,200.51) | – | 182.60 (–124.23, 489.42) |
Note: Data are from the 2001-2016 MEPS. Average marginal effect estimates of obesity are from an instrumental variables 2-part model, and expenditures are expressed in 2017 USD. The 90% CIs in parentheses are adjusted for the complex design of the MEPS.
MEPS = Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys; USD = United States dollar.