TABLE 1B.

Comparison of predictors of nest flooding probability, in the first stage of model selection.

Predictors of nest depredation	Predictors of nest flooding	Negative log likelihood	ΔAICc a	Weight	K b
Intercept-only	Maximum high tide + sea-level rise + 1% exceedance value + serial date	1,527.22	0	0.29	6
Intercept-only	Latitude + maximum high tide + 1% exceedance value + serial date	1,527.24	0.03	0.29	6
Intercept-only	Maximum high tide + 1% exceedance value + serial date	1,528.55	0.65	0.21	5
Intercept-only	Latitude + maximum high tide + sea-level rise + serial date + 1% exceedance value	1,527.16	1.88	0.11	7
Intercept-only	Latitude + 1% exceedance value + serial date	1,530.05	3.66	0.05	5
Intercept-only	Sea-level rise + 1% exceedance value + serial date	1,530.65	4.85	0.03	5
Intercept-only	Latitude + sea-level rise + 1% exceedance value + serial date	1,530.02	5.60	0.02	6
Intercept-only	Maximum high tide + 1% exceedance value	1,535.02	11.59	<0.01	4
Intercept-only	Latitude + maximum high tide + 1% exceedance value	1,534.64	12.84	<0.01	5
Intercept-only	Maximum high tide + sea-level rise + 1% exceedance value	1,534.69	12.94	<0.01	5
Intercept-only	Latitude + maximum high tide + sea-level rise + 1% exceedance value	1,534.64	14.84	<0.01	6
Intercept-only	Latitude + 1% exceedance value	1,536.93	15.42	<0.01	4
Intercept-only	1% exceedance value + serial date	1,537.28	16.12	<0.01	4
Intercept-only	Sea-level rise + 1% exceedance value	1,537.48	16.52	<0.01	4
Intercept-only	Latitude + sea-level rise + 1% exceedance value	1,536.93	17.42	<0.01	5
Intercept-only	Maximum high tide + sea-level rise + serial date	1,538.71	20.99	<0.01	5
Intercept-only	1% exceedance value	1,540.9	21.36	<0.01	3
Intercept-only	Latitude + maximum high tide + sea-level rise + serial date	1,538.04	21.65	<0.01	6
Intercept-only	Latitude + maximum high tide + serial date	1,540.02	23.61	<0.01	5
Intercept-only	Maximum high tide + serial date	1,541.26	24.08	<0.01	4
Intercept-only	Latitude + sea-level rise + serial date	1,540.81	25.18	<0.01	5
Intercept-only	Serial date	1,543.58	26.71	<0.01	3
Intercept-only	Latitude + serial date	1,543.36	28.27	<0.01	4
Intercept-only	Sea-level rise + serial date	1,543.58	28.71	<0.01	4
Intercept-only	Maximum high tide + sea-level rise	1,543.66	28.88	<0.01	4
Intercept-only	Latitude + maximum high tide + sea-level rise	1,543.1	29.75	<0.01	5
Intercept-only	Latitude + maximum high tide	1,545.27	32.10	<0.01	4
Intercept-only	Latitude + sea-level rise	1,545.39	32.34	<0.01	4
Intercept-only	Intercept-only	1,548.19	33.93	<0.01	2
Intercept-only	Maximum high tide	1,547.44	34.43	<0.01	3
Intercept-only	Sea-level rise	1,547.73	35.01	<0.01	3
Intercept-only	Latitude	1,548.14	35.84	<0.01	3

^aThe AIC_c value of the top model was 3,066.45.

^bK = number of estimated parameters.