APPENDIX TABLE 4.

Global and local predicted probabilities of nest depredation, nest flooding, and total nest survival (± SE) for Saltmarsh Sparrows by study plot (ordered from low to high latitude), 2011–2013.

Site a	State	Number of nests	Global daily nest depredation probability b	Local daily nest depredation probability c	Global daily nest flooding probability b	Local daily nest flooding probability c	Global daily nest survival probability b	Local daily nest survival probability c
Oyster Creek	NJ	34	0.031 ± 0.004	0.049 ± 0.014	0.026 ± 0.003	0.023 ± 0.010	0.944 ± 0.005	0.930 ± 0.015
Mullica Wilderness	NJ	76	0.030 ± 0.004	0.043 ± 0.008	0.026 ± 0.003	0.017 ± 0.006	0.944 ± 0.005	0.940 ± 0.010
AT&T	NJ	79	0.029 ± 0.004	0.036 ± 0.007	0.026 ± 0.003	0.034 ± 0.007	0.945 ± 0.005	0.933 ± 0.009
Four Sparrow Marsh	NY	15	0.023 ± 0.002	0.011 ± 0.008	0.051 ± 0.007	0.022 ± 0.011	0.928 ± 0.007	0.968 ± 0.014
Sawmill Creek	NY	23	0.023 ± 0.002	0.010 ± 0.008	0.034 ± 0.003	0.050 ± 0.016	0.945 ± 0.004	0.940 ± 0.018
Marine Nature Park	NY	8	0.023 ± 0.002	0.000 ± 0.001	0.051 ± 0.007	0.064 ± 0.026	0.928 ± 0.007	0.936 ± 0.029
Idlewild	NY	6	0.022 ± 0.002	0.023 ± 0.022	0.051 ± 0.007	0.093 ± 0.045	0.929 ± 0.007	0.883 ± 0.051
Hammonasset	CT	49	0.019 ± 0.002	0.005 ± 0.003	0.076 ± 0.010	0.069 ± 0.012	0.904 ± 0.010	0.926 ± 0.014
East River	CT	59	0.019 ± 0.002	0.021 ± 0.007	0.059 ± 0.006	0.059 ± 0.011	0.921 ± 0.006	0.922 ± 0.013
Pattaganset	CT	5	0.019 ± 0.002	0.000 ± 0.001	0.039 ± 0.005	0.057 ± 0.032	0.945 ± 0.005	0.944 ± 0.032
Barn Island	CT	30	0.018 ± 0.002	0.030 ± 0.017	0.039 ± 0.005	0.102 ± 0.021	0.945 ± 0.005	0.885 ± 0.025
John H. Chaffee	RI	25	0.018 ± 0.002	0.016 ± 0.008	0.035 ± 0.005	0.016 ± 0.007	0.948 ± 0.005	0.968 ± 0.010
Sachuest Point	RI	18	0.018 ± 0.002	0.087 ± 0.031	0.035 ± 0.005	0.054 ± 0.024	0.949 ± 0.005	0.857 ± 0.038
Parker River	MA	43	0.012 ± 0.002	0.022 ± 0.007	0.030 ± 0.003	0.026 ± 0.008	0.958 ± 0.003	0.951 ± 0.010
Chapman’s Landing	NH	138	0.011 ± 0.002	0.005 ± 0.002	0.030 ± 0.003	0.024 ± 0.004	0.959 ± 0.003	0.970 ± 0.004
Lubberland Creek	NH	24	0.011 ± 0.002	0.000 ± 0.000	0.030 ± 0.003	0.031 ± 0.010	0.959 ± 0.003	0.967 ± 0.010
Eldridge Road	ME	64	0.011 ± 0.002	0.018 ± 0.005	0.032 ± 0.003	0.061 ± 0.009	0.957 ± 0.003	0.922 ± 0.011
Little River	ME	5	0.010 ± 0.002	0.033 ± 0.023	0.032 ± 0.003	0.016 ± 0.016	0.957 ± 0.003	0.951 ± 0.028
Jones Creek	ME	62	0.010 ± 0.002	0.017 ± 0.005	0.037 ± 0.003	0.017 ± 0.004	0.953 ± 0.003	0.964 ± 0.006
Nonesuch River	ME	25	0.010 ± 0.002	0.036 ± 0.012	0.037 ± 0.003	0.031 ± 0.010	0.953 ± 0.003	0.936 ± 0.014
Libby River	ME	3	0.010 ± 0.002	0.004 ± 0.004	0.037 ± 0.003	0.116 ± 0.066	0.953 ± 0.003	0.879 ± 0.071
Scarborough Marsh	ME	46	0.010 ± 0.002	0.015 ± 0.006	0.037 ± 0.003	0.050 ± 0.009	0.953 ± 0.003	0.936 ± 0.014

^aThe study plot Waterford in Connecticut was excluded from analyses due to small sample size (n = 1).

^bGlobal probabilities were calculated using the parameter estimates and SEs from the top-ranked combined model (nest depredation modeled as a function of latitude and nest age, nest flooding as a function of maximum high tide, 1% exceedance value, and serial date) based on the covariate values for each study plot. Date and nest age were held constant at the mean values observed (nest age = 13 days; serial date = 188).

^cLocal probabilities were calculated using study plot as the sole predictive variable in models of daily nest depredation, flooding, and survival.