Table 2.
Selected examples of parameter values used in model: Incidence, lifetime cost per case, and number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost per HPV-associated health outcome for women aged 40 through 44 yearsa
| Health outcome | Annual incidence per 100,000 in absence of vaccination program, base case value (range) | Lifetime cost per case, base case value (range) | Number of QALYs lost per case, base case value (range) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
| |||
| Anogenital warts | 108.0 (81.5–139.0) | $860 ($430–$2,790) | 0.024 (0.008–0.100) |
| CIN 1 | 190.0 (105.0–308.0) | $1,390 ($960–$1,810) | 0.007 (0.000–0.105) |
| CIN 2/3 | 100.0 (52.0–163.0) | $2,560 ($1,070–$4,150) | 0.010 (0.000–0.115) |
| Adult-onset RRP | 0.3 (<0.1–0.9) | $67,200 ($32,300–$433,700) | 0.47 (0.15–3.43) |
| Cervical cancer | 14.8 (14.4–15.1) | $72,800 ($43,500–$82,500) | 4.80 (4.16–6.61) |
| Anal cancer | 1.3 (1.2–1.4) | $93,600 ($53,000–$134,100) | 5.19 (3.64–7.95) |
| Vaginal cancer | 0.3 (0.2–0.3) | $116,500 ($30,300–$145,200) | 6.01 (3.86–9.46) |
| Vulvar cancer | 1.6 (1.5–1.8) | $51,400 ($26,400–$59,700) | 3.69 (2.43–6.34) |
| Oropharyngeal cancer | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | $126,500 ($65,400–$146,900) | 7.07 (5.81–9.25) |
This table includes selected parameter values for women aged 40 through 44 years. See the Technical Appendix for a complete description of all model parameter values, ranges, and sources.
Costs are reported in third quarter 2018 U.S. dollars. CIN: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia. RRP: recurrent respiratory papillomatosis.
Cancer incidence assumptions in the absence of HPV vaccination were based on data from CDC’s National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) and NCI’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program for 2006–2010, which cover approximately 94.8% of the U.S. population. As described in the Technical Appendix, multiple sources were used for the incidence of the other health outcomes [31–35], costs [31,36–41], and quality of life assumptions [42-46].