Fig. 1. Historical and projected increases in global wood product production (million m³) between 1961 and 2050.

This figure shows a projected 54% increase in global wood harvest from 2010 to 2050 based on a country fixed-effects model and illustrates separate growth in four separate categories of wood product. The model uses past relationships between consumption of each of those categories of wood and population, GDP per capita and time variables. The model applies the same relationship of wood consumption to each country’s estimated future population and per capita income growth, but starts with each country’s initial consumption of each category of wood product in recognition that countries have developed different reliance on wood in significant part because of different national endowments. Relationships are estimated after separation of countries into developed and developing countries, to avoid overestimation of future wood consumption in high-income countries. LLP includes sawn wood, wood panels and other industrial roundwood; SLP refers to paper and paperboard products; VSLP–IND refers to wastes of other wood product manufactured that are burned for energy; and VSLP–WFL refers to wood harvested to burn for energy. We consider VSLP-WFL projections the most uncertain because countries have shifted from traditional wood fuel to other energy sources at different income levels. Supplementary Information provides statistics on model fits.