TABLE 3.
Scenario Analysis (Incremental Costs)
| Resulta | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario B: Increase in Afatinib Uptake | |||||
| Incremental total costs, $ | 1,606 | 65,542 | 140,564 | 209,272 | 303,368 |
| Incremental cost per member per month, $ | 0.0001 | 0.0055 | 0.0117 | 0.0174 | 0.0253 |
| Population distribution at end of year for projected afatinib scenario, n (%) | |||||
| Progression free | 26.5 (98.8) | 32.7 (60.9) | 33.5 (41.6) | 34.4 (32.0) | 35.2 (26.2) |
| Progressive | 0.3 (1.2) | 21.0 (39.1) | 47.1 (58.4) | 61.6 (57.3) | 61.3 (45.7) |
| Death | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 11.5 (10.7) | 37.8 (28.1) |
| Scenario B-1: Less Aggressive Uptake of Afatinib | |||||
| Incremental total costs, $ | 803 | 32,771 | 70,282 | 104,636 | 151,684 |
| Incremental cost per member per month, $ | 0.0001 | 0.0027 | 0.0059 | 0.0087 | 0.0126 |
| Population distribution at end of year for projected afatinib scenario, n (%) | |||||
| Progression free | 26.5 (98.8) | 32.3 (60.1) | 32.7 (40.6) | 33.1 (30.8) | 33.5 (25.0) |
| Progressive | 0.3 (1.2) | 21.5 (39.9) | 47.9 (59.4) | 62.6 (58.3) | 62.5 (46.5) |
| Death | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 11.7 (10.9) | 38.3 (28.5) |
| Scenario B-2: More Aggressive Uptake of Afatinib | |||||
| Incremental total costs, $ | 3,212 | 131,084 | 281,128 | 418,543 | 606,737 |
| Incremental cost per member per month, $ | 0.0003 | 0.0109 | 0.0234 | 0.0349 | 0.0506 |
| Population distribution at end of year for projected afatinib scenario, n (%) | |||||
| Progression free | 26.6 (98.9) | 33.6 (62.5) | 35.2 (43.7) | 36.9 (34.3) | 38.6 (28.7) |
| Progressive | 0.3 (1.1) | 20.2 (37.5) | 45.4 (56.3) | 59.6 (55.5) | 59.0 (44.0) |
| Death | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 10.9 (10.2) | 36.7 (27.3) |
| Scenario B-3: Shares from Erlotinib | |||||
| Incremental total costs, $ | –211 | 58,828 | 131,796 | 196,434 | 285,370 |
| Incremental cost per member per month, $ | 0.0000 | 0.0049 | 0.0110 | 0.0164 | 0.0238 |
| Population distribution at end of year for projected afatinib scenario, n (%) | |||||
| Progression free | 26.5 (98.7) | 32.7 (60.8) | 33.5 (41.5) | 34.3 (31.9) | 35.1 (26.1) |
| Progressive | 0.3 (1.3) | 21.1 (39.2) | 47.1 (58.5) | 61.6 (57.4) | 61.3 (45.6) |
| Death | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 (0.0) | 11.5 (10.7) | 37.9 (28.2) |
aEach number presented has been rounded to the decimal place presented. Totals are rounded after using unrounded numbers. Therefore, totals as presented may not sum exactly to their parts.